The South Florida Bulls (+12) are heading north to take on the No. 25 Cincinnati Bearcats at Nippert Stadium. This crucial AAC showdown is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action on ESPNU.
South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, Cincinnati has been projected as the big favorite and the team’s currently giving up 12 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to put up $500 to win $100 back on the Bearcats (-500). The Bulls are getting +350 moneyline odds. If one squad can catch a lucky break in the early stages it will create a reasonable betting opportunity in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 55 points.
Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Bulls have gained 2.1 units while the Bearcats are up 10.0 units.
The Bulls have gone 7-2 straight up (SU), including 3-2 SU against AAC opponents. The Bearcats are 8-1 SU overall and 4-1 SU in conference play.
When these two squads met a year ago, South Florida knocked off South Florida handily 33-3.
Cincinnati enters this one on a two-game losing streak while South Florida has won its last two in a row. The Bulls fell to Tulane 41-15 in a thumping where their defense allowed the Green Wave to eat up the clock by rushing for 365 yards on 52 attempts, including five rush TDs. On the offense, Blake Barnett completed 29-of-49 passes for 322 yards and one interception. Barnett (59 yards on 16 rush attempts, one TD) also spearheaded the running attack and was complemented by Johnny Ford (34 yards on 10 carries, one TD). Tyre McCants (nine receptions, 85 yards) and Jernard Phillips (five catches, 62 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Cincinnati takes the field on Saturday following a 42-0 win over Navy. Desmond Ridder completed 13-of-17 passes for 178 yards and one touchdown. Michael Warren II (68 yards on 15 rush attempts, two TDs) and Tavion Thomas (46 yards on 11 carries) handled the running game while Kahlil Lewis (five receptions, 39 yards) and Rashad Medaris (four catches, 82 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the win.
South Florida has run the ball on 53.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has a rush percentage of 62.4 percent. The Bulls have produced 219 rush yards/game (including 205 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 24 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Bearcats are putting up 236 rushing yards per game (236 in conference) and have 28 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Bearcats could hold an edge in the trenches. Their offensive line has given up only 17 sacks while the D-line has registered 20 sacks. The Bulls O-line has given up 24 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 23 times.
The Bulls offensive scheme has logged 274 yards per game through the air overall (254 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Bearcats have recorded 214 pass yards per outing (233.0 against AAC foes) and have 14 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, South Florida has allowed 248 rush yards and 194 pass yards per game. The Cincinnati D has given up 170.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 105.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bearcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.03 to opponents, while the Bulls have given up a 5.20 ANY/A.
Offensively, Barnett is up to 2,137 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 62 percent of his 265 attempts with 10 passing scores and eight interceptions. He’s got a 6.59 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.17 over the last two games.
As a group, Johnny Ford, Tyre McCants and Ryeshene Bronson have combined for 345 total yards and three touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
In the host locker room, Desmond Ridder has managed to complete 109-of-175 passes for 1,351 yards, 11 TDs and three INTs. Ridder’s ANY/A stands at 7.38 for the year and 6.67 over his past two outings.
Kahlil Lewis (279 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns on the year), Michael Warren II (864 rush yards, 14 rush TDs, 123 receiving yards) and Rashad Medaris (281 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) have combined to account for 531 total yards and five touchdowns over the last two games.
Free Pick: South Florida Bulls at Cincinnati Bearcats
SU Winner – Cincinnati, ATS Winner – Cincinnati, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Over/Under for South Florida’s last game was 60.5. The under cashed in the team’s 41-15 loss to Tulane.
As a team, South Florida has produced 5.9 yards per carry over its past three contests and 4.2 over its last two.
Cincinnati has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.8 over its last two.
The Cincinnati offense has lost seven fumbles this season while South Florida has lost six.
In its last three games, South Florida is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Cincinnati’s last match going into it was 47. The under cashed in the 42-0 victory over Navy.
Over its last three contests, Cincinnati is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Bulls offense has created 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bearcats have accounted for four such plays.
Both teams have allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards. The South Florida defense has given up 13 pass plays of 30+ yards while Cincinnati has permitted 11 such plays.
The South Florida offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Cincinnati has created 21 such runs.
The Bulls defense has allowed 24 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Bearcats have given up five such runs.
The South Florida defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times this year. Cincinnati has produced 20 sacks.
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