The South Florida Bulls (7-7, 0-1 AAC) and the SMU Mustangs (11-3, 1-0 AAC), who both like to play patient, will face off at Moody Coliseum. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 31, 2017, and will air on ESPNU.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 127 points with SMU opening as a 23.5-point favorite.
South Florida Bulls vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Prediction
The last time the Bulls played, they were blown out by the Houston Cougars, 79-60. Houston’s 0.524 effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over South Florida, who had a mark of 0.377. The Cougars’ mark was below their season average of 0.560, while the Bulls’ was below their season average of 0.491. Justin Brown was the game’s high scorer with 16 points on 5-for-12 shooting.
The Mustangs defeated the UCF Knights in their last game, 56-51. SMU’s 20.4 turnover percentage was their largest strength over UCF, who had a mark of 24.0. The Mustangs’ mark was worse than their season average of 15.8, while the Knights’ was above their season average of 19.7. Malik Milton was the game’s high scorer with 14 points on 5-for-13 shooting.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the nation’s slowest-paced teams face off. SMU currently ranks 339th in possessions per game (65.1) and South Florida is 331st (66.1). Moreover, the Bulls’ 288th-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 99.2) will face a tough test against the Mustangs’ 38th-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 92.9).
South Florida heads into the contest with records of 7-7 straight up (SU) and 3-6-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total high when the Bulls are involved, as six of their 10 games have gone under the total.
Meanwhile, SMU owns records of 11-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. Similarly to South Florida, games featuring the Mustangs also have typically finished under the total (55.6 percent).
After the Mustangs won the sole game against the Bulls last season, 84-65, these teams will battle for the first time this year. The Mustangs had a better free throw rate (0.164 vs. 0.070) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (50.0 vs. 25.0).
South Florida Bulls at SMU Mustangs Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – South Florida, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
South Florida is 1-1-1 ATS on the road with 2 overs and 1 under.
SMU is 4-1 ATS at home with 3 overs and 2 unders.
SMU ranks 15th in assists per game (18.2) while South Florida ranks 161st (13.2).
The Mustangs rank 143rd in three pointers attempted per game (21.9) while the Bulls rank 249th (17.4).
SMU ranks 41st in steals allowed per game (5.3) while South Florida ranks 126th (6.7).
The Mustangs rank 40th in rebounds allowed per game (31.6) while the Bulls rank 114th (34.6).
SMU ranks 72nd in blocks per game (4.0) while South Florida ranks 123rd in blocks allowed per game (3.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, South Florida is 1-3 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders.
SMU is 2-2 ATS with 3 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Bulls have outscored opponents by an average of 1.0 point in their last five games. On the season, South Florida has lost by an average of 1.9 points.
During their last five games, the Mustangs have scored an average of 77.6 points per game (2.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 67.6 points per game (7.2 above their season average).
