Two teams that prefer to keep the ball on the ground, Head Coach Charlie Strong and the No. 21 South Florida Bulls (+8) are set to face off against their AAC counterpart Houston Cougars (-8) at TDECU Stadium. ABC owns the TV rights and the game’s scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
South Florida Bulls vs. Houston Cougars Betting Preview
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference matchup, Houston has been tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 8 points. The Bulls are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Cougars are -330. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at a pretty-high 72.5 points. Multiple good in-game betting scenarios could present themselves during this matchup.
Sharp bettors are siding with the over, as the game’s total was placed initially at 71.5.
Each of these teams has been profitable this season as the Bulls have gained 5.5 units while the Cougars are ahead 3.0 units.
The Bulls have gone 7-0 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against conference opponents. The Cougars are 6-1 SU overall and are also 3-0 SU in conference play.
The Bulls are hoping to remain unbeaten following a 38-30 victory over Connecticut last weekTheir defense allowed the Huskies to rush for 322 yards on 51 attempts, including four rush TDs. David Pindell torched the defense in that one with 197 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts. On the offensive side, Blake Barnett completed 20-of-28 passes for 265 yards, one score and two interceptions. Jordan Cronkrite (103 yards on 16 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Barnett (78 yards on 10 carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win. Tyre McCants (six receptions, 49 yards) and Mitchell Wilcox (four catches, 43 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Houston is coming off of a 49-36 win over Navy. The defense let the Midshipmen run for 344 yards on 68 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Taylor Jackson was a bright spot in the loss for Navy, accounting for 120 yards on five catches. For Houston, D’Eriq King completed 25-of-38 passes for 413 yards and three touchdowns. King (56 rushing yards on seven attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Marquez Stevenson (eight receptions, 141 yards) and Keith Corbin (six catches, 104 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
South Florida has run the ball on 55.2 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has an overall rush percentage of 50.6 percent. The Bulls have run for 237 yards/game (including 237 per game against American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 19 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Cougars are logging 234 rush yards per game (209 in conference) and have 19 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Cougars should have the advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their running backs has produced 6.2 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Bulls have ran for 5.9 yards per carry while allowing 4.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bulls offensive scheme has averaged 268 yards through the air overall (228 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Cougars have put up 321 pass yards per contest (275.7 against AAC competition) and have 26 total pass TDs.
Defensively, South Florida appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has let opponents run for an average of 229 yards and throw for 180 yards per game. The Houston defense has given up 333.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 148.6 yards per game on the ground. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.28 to opponents, while the Cougars have given up a 6.64 ANY/A.
Offensively, Barnett is up to 1,578 passing yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 117-of-177 attempts with 10 passing scores and six interceptions. Barnett’s got a 7.57 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 5.28 over the last two outings.
The Bulls have tried to maintain tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Backfield mates Jordan Cronkrite (709 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Johnny Ford (297 rush yards, five rush TDs) have been focal points in the South Florida offensive scheme.
For the home team, D’Eriq King has connected on 128-of-199 passes for 1,775 yards, 21 TDs and three INTs. King’s ANY/A sits at 10.29 for the year and 11.02 across his past two outings.
The Cougars also prefer to keep their running backs involved. In addition to Marquez Stevenson (573 receiving yards, six receiving TDs), Courtney Lark (345 receiving yards and three receiving TDs) and Keith Corbin (two rush yards, 422 receiving yards, six TDs) have seen a multitude of action recently.
These two teams met a year ago with the final outcome being a 28-24 victory for Houston.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: South Florida Bulls vs. Houston Cougars
SU Winner – South Florida, ATS Winner – South Florida, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Houston has lost four fumbles this season while South Florida has lost three.
The South Florida defense has sacked opposing QBs 21 times this season. Houston has registered just 15 sacks.
South Florida has produced 7.7 yards per carry over its past three contests and 7.1 over its last two.
Houston has averaged 5.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.6 over its past two.
In its last three matchups, Houston is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for South Florida’s previous game was set at 67.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-30 victory over Connecticut.
Over its last three matches, South Florida is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Houston’s last outing was 59.5. The over cashed in the 49-36 victory over Navy.
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