Another interesting matchup that could earn us some money in the English Premier League this weekend will be played in Southampton FC as the Saints host AFC Bournemouth. Both teams rank in the middle of the table (Southampton FC ranks 10th, The Cherries rank 11th) and if they raise their form they have a chance of seeing some action in the European competitions next year. It’s a long stretch but anything is possible when it comes to soccer, especially in the EPL.
SOUTHAMPTON FC vs. AFC BOURNEMOUTH
3-Way: 1: Southampton FC -149; X: +320 Draw; AFC Bournemouth +500
Spread 0.5: Southampton -152; Bournemouth +144
Total 2.5: -123 over; +116 under
The Southampton FC boss Claude Puel admits that he has some problems with the team in terms of keeping the players focused. The Team has not seen too much action following the League Cup final that they have lost to Manchester United with 2:3, and the international break, meaning that the squad played only two games in 35 days. Also, Puel’s over-rotation of the starting 11 that hasn’t had the positive effect on the results didn’t sit well with the fans. The Saints have proved in the Cup final match that they are a quality team and that they can fight with the best but their main issue continues to be the inconsistency. They currently rank 10th in the league with 33 points in 27 games but are 3-0-5 in the last eight games and 1-0-3 in the last four games at home with losses against Tottenham, West Bromwich and West Ham Utd. They rank 15th on the home table with 5-3-4 record, earning 18 of 36 possible points. Southampton’s goals goal difference is 33-36 overall (14-14 at home). 56% of their matches are over 2.5 goals (42% of home matches) and the most common result at home is 1:0 (occurred three times this season) and 1:1 (occurred two times this season). The Saints haven’t scored more than three goals in a home game this year so far but did score four goals two times on the road (away wins over Sunderland and Watford in Matchweek 27 and 28). Team’s leading scorer is Charlie Austin with six goals and he is being followed by Nathan Redmond with five and the newcomer, Manolo Gabbiadini with four goals. Gabbiadini came during the January transfer window from Napoli. Ryan Bertrand, Dusan Tadic and James Ward-Prowse top the team in assists with four each. Most successful passers are Oriol Romeu with 1.478 and Steven Davis with 1.184 passes this season.
Boss Claude Puel has six unavailable players at the moment due to injuries. Manolo Gabbiadaini’s (Groin Strain) and Alex McCarthy’s (Hamstring injury) return to the pitch is still questionable, especially for the upcoming clash with Bournemouth. Virgil van Dijk (Ankle injury) will be out until at least April 29th, Charlie Austin (Shoulder injury) is expected to be out until at least April 8th, Matt Targett (Hamstring injury) is expected to be out until at least April 15th and Jeremy Pied (ACL Knee injury) is expected to be out until at least June 1st.
AFC Bournemouth ranks 11th on the Premier league table with 33 points in 29 games played. The team had a bad period during the entire month of February with four losses in a row (4-12 goal difference) but all that changed after a 1-1 draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford on March 4th, when they played with only ten players for the most of the match. Since then, they have two consecutive home wins over West Ham Utd, 3:2 and Svansea City, 2:0. The Cherries are 2-2-4 in the last eight games and 0-1-3 in their last four away games. They are 2-3-9 overall on the road this season and have 42-54 goal difference (16-31 away). 59% of Bournemouth matches are over 2.5 goals (64% of away matches) and most common results away are 1:3 (two times) and 1:1 (two times). They play much better in Bournemouth with 73% of their points being earned at home but they did score at least one goal in each of their last five away matches. Joshua King tops the team with 11 goals this season while Callum Wilson and Benik Afobe have six and four goals scored. Junior Stanislas collected team-high five assists while Adam Smith and Charlie Daniels rank second and third with four and three assists. Team’s leading passer is Harry Arter with 1.506 passes so far.
Ryan Fraser (Knee injury) and Harry Arter (Calf Strain) with light injuries are both questionable for the Saturday matchup. It is not certain if Junior Stanislas will be available as he is expected to be out until at least April 1st. Callum Wilson (ACL Knee injury) and Adam Federici (Cartilage Knee injury) are both out for the season.
Southampton FC and AFC Bournemouth met three times in the Premier league with the Saints emerging victorious twice. Also, the Cherries have never won an away match at Southampton in any competition. First match in Bournemouth also went Southampton’s way, 3-1 with two goals by Jay Rodriguez. Home team has the slight advantage but it remains uncertain if this international break had any influence on the teams. I like the -149 on the home team, which is why I pick the Saints to win in a matchup that should also be decided with less than 3 goals.
MY PICK: Southampton (-149)
TOTAL: less than 2.5 goals (+116)
