The No.4-seeded Southern Jaguars (19-12) face off against the No.5-seeded Alabama State Hornets (14-16) in the second round of the SWAC tournament at the Toyota Center. Action starts at 9:30 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 10.
The Jaguars fell to Prairie View A&M 79-71 in their last matchup. Shawn Prudhomme had a good game for the Jaguars, contributing 15 points, three rebounds, and two assists. The Hornets, meanwhile, are coming off a 59-58 win over Grambling State in their last outing. Terrance LeFlore led the team in scoring by registering 16 points on 5-for-11 shooting.
Over the last five games, Jamel Waters has been on fire for the Hornets. During that stretch, he has averaged 18.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.8 three-pointers.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Southern ranks 17th in the nation, allowing just 101.1 points per 100 possessions, while Alabama State is 27th (106.7). Also, the Hornets commit the ninth-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 17.0%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Jaguars causes the 12th-most (opponents’ TO% of 19.9%).
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Hornets had the upper hand in the most recent game, a close 77-68 win. Corvon Butler had a standout performance in the victory, putting up 19 points and nine rebounds.
Despite being 19-12 Straight Up (SU), the Jaguars have struggled to cover the spread in most of their matchups, only managing a record of 1-3 Against The Spread (ATS). Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Jaguars, allowing a field goal percentage of only .422.
Over on the other bench, Alabama State has a SU record of 14-16 and an ATS record of 0-2-1. The Alabama State defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only .462 shooting from the field to its opponents.
Following the Hornets’ latest win over Southern, Alabama State moved closer to evening up its record against Southern. It now stands at 3-7 SU over their most recent meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 1-1 record. Southern held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Alabama State never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – AlSt, ATS Winner – AlSt
Notes
In its last game, Alabama State won by a margin of one point. Southern is 0-1 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Alabama State has a 6-4 record in close games.
The Southern Jaguars have a defensive rating of 101.1 (ranked 17th), while the Alabama State Hornets have an offensive rating of 102.6 (ranked 242nd).
Alabama State has an average field goal percentage of 41.4%. Southern is an even 9-9 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
On average, the Southern Jaguars attempt 17.0 three point field goals per game and the Alabama State Hornets attempt 20.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Southern has a solid 8-3 record, while Alabama State is 10-8.
The Alabama State Hornets make an average of 5.9 steals per game. When the Southern Jaguars give up 5 or more steals, they are a winning 11-7.
