The South Florida Bulls take on the Southern Methodist Mustangs this week in a game that will feature the AAC’s leading rusher, Marlon Mack (689 yards, 3 TDs). The Bulls have gone 3-3 thus far, while the Mustangs are 1-5. The game starts at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct 24 and will be available on ESNN.
In last week’s matchup, South Florida defeated Connecticut 28-20. Rodney Adams had a huge game in the victory, pulling in five receptions for 118 yards and three TDs. D’Ernest Johnson had 50 rushing yards on nine carries. SMU is hoping for a different outcome after losing big against Houston 49-28. Matt Davis had a great game through the air for the Mustangs, connecting on 21 of 35 pass attempts for 248 yards and three TDs. Darius Joseph put up 63 receiving yards and a TD on two catches.
The odds between the Bulls and the Mustangs are even this week, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable currently.
Sitting at 3-3 Straight Up (SU) and 4-1-1 Against The Spread (ATS), the Bulls will look to improve heading into Week 8. A focal point of South Florida’s offense is the running game, which ranks 15th in the country with 232.3 rushing yards per game. As for the South Florida defense, a few key matchups could decide this game. There are very few in the country better at defending the run than the Bulls. South Florida only allows 3.4 yards per rush to its opponents. The Mustangs will need to stop South Florida’s defense from getting to their quarterbacks in order to be successful in this game. The Bulls rank 23rd in the nation in sacks with 2.8 per game. South Florida can likely capitalize on how the Mustangs are one of the worst in the country at preventing scoring in the fourth quarter, allowing an average of 10.5 points.
Over on the other sideline, the Mustangs fare well ATS, sitting at 4-2. However, they are only 1-5 SU this season. The Bulls might be leery of throwing too often against the Mustangs. They rank 14th in the country in interceptions with 1.5 per game. For the Bulls, special teams is an area in need of improvement. Their 122.7 return yards allowed per game rank amongst the worst in the country.
Predictions: SU Winner – South Florida, ATS Winner – South Florida
Notes
South Florida is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
South Florida is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Florida’s last 6 games.
South Florida is 7-16-2 ATS in its last 25 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Florida’s last 7 games at home.
South Florida is 3-0 SU when leading after three quarters this year.
South Florida is only 1-2) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 2-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
SMU has provoked an average of 8.7 penalties on opponents this season, but South Florida is 2-1 SU when penalized at least eight times in a game.
