The Idaho State Bengals (14-15, 9-9 BigSky) clash against the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (11-18, 5-13 BigSky) in the Big Sky Conference Tourney at Reno Events Center. The game starts at 8:35 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 6, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 151 points with Idaho State opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Idaho State Bengals ATS Prediction
In the Thunderbirds’ last contest, they were defeated by the Idaho Vandals, 78-76. Idaho’s 0.250 free throw rate was their largest advantage over Southern Utah, who had a rate of 0.086. The Vandals’ mark was above their season average of 0.238, while the Thunderbirds’ was below their season average of 0.271. Southern Utah’s Jamal Aytes played well, finishing with 17 points and seven rebounds.
The Bengals were beaten by the Montana Grizzlies in their last outing, 75-64. Montana won the rebounding battle. The Grizzlies had 17 offensive rebounds and 45 total rebounds, while the Bengals had four and 27, respectively. With 19 points on 8-for-16 shooting, Brandon Boyd was Idaho State’s leading scorer.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Idaho State should have a significant advantage. The sharp-shooting Bengals offense ranks 32nd in the NCAA in that metric at 0.555, while the bottom-tier Southern Utah defense is ranked 315th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.541).
Although Southern Utah struggles winning games straight up (11-18 SU), they are 15-12 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Thunderbirds have a tendency to finish over the O/U total (55.6 percent).
Meanwhile, Idaho State owns records of 14-15 SU and 15-9-1 ATS. Contrary to Southern Utah, Bengals games tend to go under the projected point total (56.0 percent).
Boyd and Geno Luzcando have been playing well over the last five games for Idaho State. Boyd has averaged 18.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Luzcando has put up 12.6 points and 3.2 assists a game during that span.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Thunderbirds won the most recent matchup 84-80, covering as 3-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 164 points, which was 15.5 points above the projected point total of 148.5 points. Southern Utah had a much better turnover percentage (3.9 vs. 14.9). Idaho State, meanwhile, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.577 vs. 0.508). Boyd was a standout player in the game, producing 22 points and six rebounds.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs. Idaho State Bengals Pick
Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Idaho State, ATS Winner – Idaho State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Southern Utah ranks 197th in rebounds per game (34.2) while Idaho State ranks 270th (32.0).
The Bengals rank 234th in assists per game (11.9) while the Thunderbirds rank 240th (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Southern Utah is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Idaho State is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Thunderbirds’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.8, up from 6.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bengals have scored an average of 79.4 points per game (5.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 80.2 points per game (5.9 above their season average).
