NBA Preview: The Spurs will need to rise up and give maximum effort without Kawhi Leonard on Tuesday. San Antonio could use some good luck, too.
#2 San Antonio Spurs (69-26) at #1 Golden State Warriors (76-15), Tuesday, 9 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -14. Total 208.5.
Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. Although the Golden State team might want that phrase to be read, “Sometimes it is better to be lucky and good”.
The Warriors are already good. In fact, they are a great team. However, despite all their accolades, the Warriors were still getting throttled by the Spurs for the first 28 minutes of Game 1 of their Western Conference finals series. Golden State trailed 78-55 four minutes into the third quarter. That is when San Antonio got unlucky.
Kawhi Leonard sprained his left ankle for the second time during Game 1 and third time in six days. Leonard landed on Zaza Pachulia’s foot and had to leave the game. The Warriors pounced like sharks on chum, immediately going on an 18-0 run to cut their 23-point deficit to five points. The game went back and forth from there, but the Warriors prevailed in the end with a 113-111 victory.
Kevin Durant caught fire as soon as Leonard left the game. Durant had 14 points on 4-for-11 shooting from the field in the first 28 minutes before the injury to Leonard. After Leonard left the game, Durant went 7-for-10 from the field and scored 20 points over the last 20 minutes of the game.
In fact, Golden State shot just 38% from the field when Leonard was on the court. The Warriors shot 59% from the field when Leonard was not on the court. Those are MVP-like numbers right there. However, players like Russell Westbrook, James Harden and LeBron James are standing ahead of Leonard in line for that award. So Leonard has to settle for the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award. Leonard has won that award the last two seasons. Although Draymond Green is a candidate to possibly unseat Leonard for the 2016-17 award.
So Golden State was lucky to have Leonard leave the game due to injury as the tide turned immediately in their favor. However, that does not discount just how good this Warriors team is. Golden State is now 9-0 in the playoffs and 24-1 in their last 25 games. The Warriors have won more games in their last three regular seasons than any team in league history.
Vegas has jacked this line up to 14 points. They believe Kawhi Leonard is worth 4 points, which is high praise as that is about as high a line will move. Only LeBron James being out can match or surpass a 4-point line move for one player being out.
From a handicapping perspective, I see too many factors in the Spurs favor despite Leonard being out for Game 2. Andre Iguodala is listed as questionable for Golden State for Game 2 with soreness in his left knee. Iguodala only played 10 minutes in Game 1. He has been an important cog for their second unit and the Warriors lose some depth if Iguodala is out.
San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich will have time to make some adjustments for Game 2 with Leonard out. Popovich and the Spurs did just fine after losing Leonard for Game 6 at Houston, winning that game by 39 points. Obviously the Warriors are a much better team than the Rockets. It will be extremely difficult for the Spurs to knock off the Warriors in Game 2. However, good teams step up when their star player goes down.
Coach Popovich is already at it, laying into Pachulia in an interview on Monday. He accused Pachulia of being a dirty player in so many words. “Pop” basically accused Pachulia of knowingly putting Leonard in harms way in Game 1. Popovich added that Pachulia deliberately used a closeout tactic on a shooter that has been outlawed by the league. He is clearly trying to rally his troops for Game 2.
The Warriors will probably win Game 2. However, I do not expect the Spurs to lay down and get steamrolled.
My postseason record: 16-7 (+$745).
My pick:
No play. I have a lean towards San Antonio and the points again.
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