Offense meets defense when the No. 11 Xavier Musketeers (16-3, 4-2 Big East) welcome the St. John’s Red Storm (10-8, 0-6 Big East) to Cintas Center. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 17, 2018, and will air on CBS Sports Network.
Xavier is a 12.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 152.5 points.
St. John’s Red Storm at Xavier Musketeers Free Prediction
The Red Storm are trying to rebound after their 78-71 loss to the No. 1 Villanova Wildcats in their last matchup. Villanova’s 0.358 free throw rate was their largest advantage over St. John’s, who had a mark of 0.219. The Wildcats’ mark was above their season average of 0.241. Shamorie Ponds was the top scorer from either team with 37 points on 15-for-28 shooting.
In the Musketeers’ last matchup, they easily got past the No. 25 Creighton Bluejays, 92-70. The Musketeers forced 20 turnovers and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 (above their season average of 31.5). Trevon Bluiett was the top scorer from either team with 24 points on 9-for-16 shooting.
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as Xavier currently ranks 17th in offensive efficiency and St. John’s is 52nd in defensive efficiency. Ball security should be an advantage for the Red Storm. They rank 45th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.7 percent). Conversely, the Musketeers force the 26th-fewest turnovers in the nation (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.1 percent).
St. John’s holds records of 10-8 straight up (SU) and 7-8-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total high when the Red Storm are involved, as 64.3 percent of their games have ended under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Xavier owns records of 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS. Contrary to St. John’s, Musketeers games have typically finished over the O/U total (55.6 percent).
After the Musketeers won both meetings against the Red Storm last season, these teams will battle for the first time this year. In the last game, Xavier won 82-77. Xavier won the rebounding battle. The Musketeers had more offensive rebounds (17 vs. six), defensive rebounds (28 vs. 20) and total rebounds (45 vs. 26).
St. John’s Red Storm at Xavier Musketeers Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Xavier, ATS Winner – St. John’s, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, St. John’s is 3-5 ATS with 5 unders and 3 overs.
Xavier is 9-3 ATS at home with 6 overs and 5 unders.
Xavier ranks 36th in rebounds per game (39.6) while St. John’s ranks 269th in rebounds allowed per game (40.2).
The Musketeers rank 25th in assists per game (17.4) while the Red Storm rank 191st (12.6).
St. John’s ranks ninth in steals per game (9.1) while Xavier ranks 145th in steals allowed per game (7.0).
The Red Storm rank fifth in blocks per game (6.3) while the Musketeers rank 127th in blocks allowed per game (4.1).
St. John’s ranks 150th in three pointers attempted per game (21.7) while Xavier ranks 241st in three pointers allowed per game (26.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, St. John’s is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Xavier is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Red Storm have been outscored by an average of 7.8 points in their last five games. On the season, St. John’s has defeated opponents by an average of 4.2 points.
During their last five games, the Musketeers have scored an average of 78.4 points per game (6.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 78.2 points per game (5.3 above their season average).
