Of course, Blues vs Predators. The second round matchup we all predicted, I’m sure.
Both teams have had to overcome seemingly insurmountable odds to get to where they are. The St. Louis Blues had a turbulent season but got hot at the right time. Despite getting badly outshot and generating very little offense, they dispatched the Minnesota Wild in just five games. Though they were a regular-season offensive juggernaut, the Wild shut down at the wrong time and couldn’t start it back up.
Nashville entered this postseason tied for the fewest points of any playoff team. They met their arch-nemesis in the Chicago Blackhawks in the opening round. They managed to steal a 1-0 shutout in Game 1 in Chicago. Alright, fine. Good start. Then they won 5-0, blowing the Hawks out of their own building. Then an overtime winner put the Preds on top 3-0 in the series. Okay, but there’s no way the Blackhawks go down that easy, right? This is the Chicago Blackhawks we’re talking about.
One 4-1 victory later and the Nashville Predators were on to the second round. They held one of the best offensive teams in the league to just three goals in four games.
Incredible.
With both teams having slain a pretty big dragon in the opening round, let’s look at some of the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Predators.
Nashville’s offensive depth shone in their series against the Chicago Blackhawks. All but three regular players tallied points- even goaltender Pekka Rinne had a pair of assists.
The only players who did not register a point in the four games were fourth line center Mike Fisher and third pairing defensemen Yannick Weber and Matt Irwin. Nine different players found the back of the net.
Their depth could get even better if they are able to get fully healthy. Craig Smith sat out Game 4 with an undisclosed injury, and Colin Wilson, who had a tremendous postseason last year, has not played since April 4th with a lower-body injury. Neither have had their status determined for Game 1 as of now.
St. Louis got one of their top forwards back just in time. Paul Stastny missed the first four games of the first round but gave the Blues a spark in the deciding Game 5. He scored the team’s third goal of the game in the third period. The Blues went on to win in overtime.
The Blues are going to have a devil of a time getting quality shots. Heck, they are going to have a hard time getting shots in general. In the opening round, no team was outshot more than the Blues. They had a team Corsi-for rating of 39.2%. In terms of scoring chance-for percentage, they came in at 39.4%. High-danger chances-for? Just 40.1%. Those numbers were last among all teams in the NHL playoffs last round and it was not even close. Now, they are going up against the team that held the Blackhawks to three goals in four games.
Perhaps Stastny will provide a bit more of a spark than anticipated. Much of this series depends on St. Louis’ Vladimirs. Vladimir Tarasenko finally found the back of the net in Game 5. He would finish the series with a goal and two assists and 21 shots on goal. Vladimir Sobotka also had a goal and two assists in the series. After playing the entirety of this season in the KHL, Sobotka has returned to the NHL and is making a huge difference for the Blues.
The timing of his move seems unfair, in retrospect, but other teams benefit from college players coming up too. The whole concept of having a guy come in just for the playoffs seems odd to me, but I digress.
Defense: advantage Predators.
This is where limiting shot quality and quantity will come into play. St. Louis was embarrassed in the possession game by Minnesota. They will now have to try and break through Peter Laviolette’s neutral zone trap and force their way around a defensive core that just made Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin irrelevant.
It starts at Roman Josi for Nashville, who had a pair of goals in Game 4 against Chicago. He chews up 24-plus minutes a night alongside Ryan Ellis on the top pair. That tandem was not scored on in four games. Mattias Ekholm and P.K. Subban make up the second pair. Subban and Ekholm combined for three assists and were both a +4.
St. Louis got a few surprise contributions offensively from their defensemen, namely Joel Edmundson who had two goals in the series. But at the rate they bled shots in the Minnesota series, they are going to have a hard time limiting chances for the speedy Nashville forwards.
Frankly, the Blues are fortunate Jake Allen had the series of his life in the first round.
Special teams: advantage Predators.
Neither team has a particularly impressive special teams unit on either the man advantage or the penalty kill. In five regular season matchups, the Blues were 1-for-14 on the powerplay while the Preds were 4-for-22. While Nashville scored more, they drew far more penalties to give them more opportunities.
Both teams only scored one powerplay goal in the first round. The Blues allowed three powerplay goals, the Preds allowed two.
In the regular season, the Blues had the third-best penalty kill in the league. The Predators were 15th. The Blues had the eighth-best powerplay, while the Preds were 16th-best.
However, St. Louis’ discipline is going to come into play in this series. Nashville is very good at drawing penalties, drawing the sixth-most in the league. If the Blues are not tighter defensively, they are going to suffer, regardless of how successful their penalty kill was in the regular season.
It’s a narrow difference between these two particular teams. A lot comes down to the Blues’ last line of defense…
Goaltending: advantage Blues.
Yes, Pekka Rinne had a pair of shutouts in the first round. But Jake Allen is one of the best shorthanded goaltenders in the NHL. Allen ranked among the best starters in shorthanded save percentage at .901- for frame of reference, future Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky’s shorthanded save percentage was .891. Though the Bruins led the league in penalty kill percentage, Tuukka Rask’s save percentage when down a man was .887.
Pekka Rinne’s shorthanded save percentage was .863.
Allen is going to have a much heavier workload in this series if all remains constant. Rinne had himself a great four games, but Allen was tested far more and came up huge. They had comparable numbers in the regular season, so I’m giving the nod to the man who has faced higher danger shots.
Bold Predictions:
1) At least two games will head into extra time.
2) Vladimir Tarasenko will only score one goal.
3) This will be a home-dominated series.
Prediction: Predators in 7.
