John Lackey (9-7, 3.56 ERA) and Mike Leake (8-9, 4.79 ERA) take the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Chicago Cubs (73-42) and the St. Louis Cardinals (61-56) at Wrigley Field. The Cardinals won the last game 8-4, and Chicago leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 8:08 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 14 and can be seen on ESPN.
Lackey pitched 8.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering one run, striking out six and walking one in a 5-1 win over the Angels. Anthony Rizzo (.286, 70 Rs, 24 HRs, 82 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Leake went 6.0 innings, surrendering three runs and walking four in a 7-4 defeat to the Reds in his most recent start. Matt Carpenter (.293, 59 Rs, 15 HRs, 56 RBIs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Chicago, a big -194 favorite, takes on St. Louis. Though the Cubs have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-24), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 68-34. Chicago is an impressive 8-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Cubs have seen an uptick in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 6.0 runs per game. They average 5.1 runs per game on the season. Chicago’s pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 2.4 runs per game, well under their season average of 3.4. The Cubs are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.110 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, St. Louis has an 18-20 record and an overall money line of -447. They are 7-8 as the underdog against fellow NL Central members, and 27-22 SU. Offensively, the Cardinals have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.9 runs per game by averaging 3.4 during that stretch. The Cardinals can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking fourth in the league with 160 home runs. The Cardinals allow 4.4 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 6.0 runs per game during that span.
The Cubs have a 47-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Leake takes the mound. Lackey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a 46-36 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
St. Louis has won 55% (29-24) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Chicago has won 68% (40-19) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cardinals managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Cubs who are heading in with a 49-20 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cubs are 61-12. The Cardinals have a 42-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the top five of the league based on total runs this season, Chicago ranks third with 585 runs and St. Louis is fifth with 577.
Chicago ranks at the top of the league when it comes to walks with 477 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 402.
When the Cubs hit at least one home run, they are 53-21. When the Cardinals hit at least one homer, they have a 49-35 record.
