John Lackey (1-1, 3.69 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (20-7) meet Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.84 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (14-12) in the last of a four-game division series at Busch Stadium. The Cubs won the last game 6-5 and St. Louis leads the series 2-1. The game gets underway at 1:45 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 7 and will air on CSN-CHI and FSN-MW.
In his most recent outing, Lackey pitched 6.0 innings, giving up one run, striking out four and walking three in a 2-1 loss to the Pirates. Matt Holliday (.344, 14 Rs, 1 HR, 14 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. In his career against the Cardinals, Arrieta is 3-0 with a 0.74 ERA. He gets a solid St. Louis offense that’s batting .272. Anthony Rizzo (.341, 22 Rs, 5 HRs, 15 RBIs, 7 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Cubs, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs.
St. Louis is a -120 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Cardinals perform well as a favorite with a 17-4 record and have an overall money line of +1,278. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (8-2). The Cardinals come into the game with the NL’s second-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 5.0 runs per game in their own ballpark. The Cardinals are a superb hitting team with 9.4 hits per home game, one of the highest marks in the NL. Turning to the pitching staff, the Cardinals lead the NL in ERA with a 2.46 team average. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.2 strikeouts per game.
On the other side, the Cubs have a record of 6-5 when they are the underdog and are -90 overall with the money line. Against teams in their division, they are 10-9 SU and 4-4 as the underdog. The top road hitting team in the NL are the Cubs, who average 9.6 hits in games away from home. The Cubs have racked up 28 steals on the year, making them one of the most threatening base-running teams in the league.
In their previous five games this season, the Cardinals have a 3-2 record. This game will feature Arrieta (RHP) on the mound against the Cardinals, who have an 11-1 home and 17-4 overall record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Cubs will be the right-hander Lackey. They sport an 11-9 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Cubs won by a margin of one run. The Cardinals are 5-4 in one-run games. The Cubs have a 6-5 record in close games.
When leading after 7 innings, St. Louis is 8-3, while Chicago is 5-6.
The St. Louis batters brought in a solid nine hits last game. Chicago has a record of 6-9 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
When they are outhit, the Cubs are 3-9. The Cardinals have a 4-2 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 24th in home runs, St. Louis has hit 19 this season. Chicago ranks 19th with 21 home runs.
Ranking seventh, Chicago is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.68 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at second with 9.42.
Ranking 12th, Chicago is in the top half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.719). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .741.
The Cubs are 7-9 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cardinals are 8-4 when they allow at least one homer.
