Lance Lynn (2-3, 3.27 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (24-12) square off against Alfredo Simon (4-1, 3.05 ERA) and the Detroit Tigers (23-14) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. The Tigers won the last game 4-3 and Detroit leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 8:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, May. 17 and can be seen on ESPN.
Lynn pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out nine and walking four in an 8-3 win over the Indians. Matt Carpenter (.323, 28 Rs, 7 HRs, 24 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Simon is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA against the Cardinals in his career. He takes on a good St. Louis offense that’s batting .267. Miguel Cabrera (.333, 23 Rs, 10 HRs, 29 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
St. Louis is a -134 favorite against Detroit and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Cardinals have recorded an overall money line of +1,130 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 19-6. Against the AL, they have a 1-1 record when they were the favorite and 2-2 SU. The Cardinals have seen a decline in scoring against teams in the AL, averaging 3.5 runs per game. They average 4.5 runs per game on the season. St. Louis’s batters do not strike out very often at home, with only 6.4 per game. St. Louis’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 4.3 runs per game, well above its season average of 3.2.
In games where it is the underdog, Detroit has a 7-5 record and an overall money line of +628. Detroit has put in a great performance against teams in the NL, coming in with a nice record SU ({betdsi.at.nl.su_record}) and as the underdog (3-1). The Tigers are tough outs for opponents, ranking second in the AL with 9.8 hits per road game. The Tigers are an excellent base stealing team with 31 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB. The Tigers allow 4.0 runs per game, but does better whenever an NL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 2.2 against teams from the NL.
The Tigers have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Cardinals have a great 12-2 record at home (20-7 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Simon takes the mound. Lynn (RHP) will be on the hill against the Tigers, who have a 16-11 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – DET, O/U – Over
Notes
St. Louis and Detroit have both won 73% (11-4) of their games when they lead after 7 innings.
The Tigers managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Cardinals who are heading in with a 9-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Tigers are 1-10. The Cardinals have a 6-6 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 20th in home runs, St. Louis has hit 30 this season. Detroit ranks 13th with 34 home runs.
Both St. Louis and Detroit are tied at second in hits, notching 9.23 per game.
Ranking eighth, St. Louis is in the top 10 of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.737). Detroit ranks in the top five at third with an OPS of .784.
When the Tigers allow at least one home run, they are 8-9. When the Cardinals allow one or more homers, they have a 9-8 record.
