John Lackey (4-4, 3.74 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (41-21) go up against Jason Vargas (5-2, 4.10 ERA) and the Kansas City Royals (34-25) in the last of a three-game interleague series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the last game 3-2 and St. Louis leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 2:15 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 14 and will air on FSN-KC, FSN-MW and MLB Net.
Lackey has a 3.67 ERA and a 3-5 record in his career against the Royals, and is up against a strong Kansas City offense that’s hitting .266 on the year. Matt Carpenter (.290, 39 Rs, 8 HRs, 32 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. In his career against the Cardinals, Vargas is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA. He meets a solid St. Louis offense that’s batting .262.
St. Louis is a -140 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Cardinals perform well as a favorite with a 31-11 record and have an overall money line of +1,679. They have an SU record of 5-5 against the American League and a 3-2 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Cardinals seem to play worse on offense against American League opponents. In those matchups, St. Louis has only averaged 3.1 runs per game compared to its 4.0 season average. They have been very patient at the plate, ranking fifth in the NL with an average of 3.1 walks per game. St. Louis’s pitching staff performs very well on its own field, with an AL-best 2.44 team ERA at home. The Cardinals don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking fifth in the league with a 1.20 WHIP.
On the other side, the Royals have a record of 15-11 when they are the underdog and are +818 overall with the money line. Against interleague competitors, they are 5-3 SU, but have a 1-2 record when they were an underdog to win. The Royals will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In their 10 most recent games, Kansas City’s run production has dropped to 2.5 runs per game, compared to 4.0 for the duration of the season. The top road hitting team in the AL are the Royals, who average 9.6 hits in games away from home. Opposing pitchers have routinely struggled to strike out the Kansas City batters, who average an AL-low 5.9 strikeouts per game. Kansas City’s pitching staff and defense as a whole has been firing on all cylinders so far, averaging an AL-best 3.5 runs allowed per game.
The Cardinals are 3-2 against the Royals this season. The Cardinals will take on a left-hander (Vargas) in this game and have a 7-7 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Lackey will take the mound against the Royals, who have a 24-16 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
St. Louis recorded at least two errors for the 10th time this season.
When the Royals play into extra innings, they have a 3-1 record. The Cardinals are 5-3 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Royals are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Cardinals have a 17-5 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Royals are 2-20. The Cardinals have a 9-14 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, St. Louis ranks 25th with 47 homers and Kansas City is 27th with 45.
St. Louis and Kansas City both rank in the top five of the league in hits. St. Louis sits at fifth with 8.89 hits per game and Kansas City ranks second with 9.10.
St. Louis and Kansas City both rank in the top half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. St. Louis sits at 11th with an OPS of .720 and Kansas City ranks 13th with an OPS of .716.
The Royals are 15-17 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cardinals are 17-14 when they allow at least one homer.
