Carlos Martinez (12-4, 2.62 ERA) gets the start for the St. Louis Cardinals (75-41) as they meet David Phelps (4-8, 4.35 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (46-70) in the last of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the last game 6-2 and St. Louis leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 2:15 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 16 and will air on FSFL and FSMW.
In his last start, Martinez pitched 8.0 innings, giving up three runs and striking out eight in a 4-3 victory over the Pirates. Randal Grichuk (.286, 46 Rs, 15 HRs, 44 RBIs, 4 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. The Marlins were unsuccessful the last time Phelps pitched. He struggled, going 4.1 innings, allowing seven runs, striking out three and walking three in an 8-6 loss to the Mets. Justin Bour (.250, 22 Rs, 11 HRs, 34 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
St. Louis is a heavy -232 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Cardinals have a winning record of 62-25 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +2,486. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (7-3). Don’t expect the St. Louis hitters to swing wildly in their own ballpark. They average only 6.8 strikeouts per home game. St. Louis’s pitching staff can be considered for best in its league, with an NL-low 2.62 team ERA.
Moving on to the away team, the Marlins come into this game with a weak win percentage of .357 when playing as the underdog (25-45) and an overall money line of -2,224. Miami is one of the top hitting teams in the league with 268 extra base hits. Miami is a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in the MLB with 78 stolen bases. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Miami pitchers. They allowed 6.1 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 4.1.
In their previous five games this season, the Cardinals have a 5-0 record. The Cardinals will take on a right-hander (Phelps) in this game. They have done very well against right-handed starting pitchers this season (58-26), especially at home where they have a 36-9 record. The right-handed Martinez will take the mound against the Marlins, who have a 36-54 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – StL, O/U – Under
Notes
The Cardinals are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Marlins have a 12-31 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Cardinals have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Cardinals have won their last two games while the Marlins have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 33-19. The Cardinals have a 47-14 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Miami sits at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 422 this season. St. Louis ranks in the bottom half at 18th with 462.
Ranking 25th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 278 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 349.
When the Cardinals hit at least one home run, they are 47-19. When the Marlins hit at least one homer, they have a 28-34 record.
