Lance Lynn (3-4, 3.41 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (33-18) go up against Tyler Cravy (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (18-34) in the second of a three-game division series at Busch Stadium. The Brewers won the last game 1-0 and Milwaukee leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jun. 2 and will air on FSN-WI and FSN-MW.
Lynn is 6-3 with a 2.78 ERA against the Brewers in his career, and faces a less-than-stellar Milwaukee offense that’s hitting just .227 on the year. Jhonny Peralta (.311, 25 Rs, 8 HRs, 30 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 3 yesterday. This is the first start of the season for Lynn. Adam Lind (.278, 19 Rs, 8 HRs, 23 RBIs) went 1 for 1 yesterday.
St. Louis, a -151 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Milwaukee. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at seven runs. The Cardinals have a winning record of 27-9 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,271. They are 5-2 as the favorite over their last 10 games. St. Louis has been struggling as of late. In the last 10 games, St. Louis has only averaged 2.8 runs per game compared to the 4.1 they’ve averaged on the season. The Cardinals are an exceptional hitting team with 9.2 hits per game, one of the highest marks in the NL. The Cardinals typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.2 walks per game. As for the pitching staff, the Cardinals lead the NL in ERA with a 2.70 team average. The Cardinals don’t give up many hits to opposing batters, ranking third in the NL with only 8.2 hits allowed per game.
Switching gears, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .394 when playing as the underdog (13-20) and an overall money line of -1,558. Against divisional foes, they are 10-16 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 7-11 record. Milwaukee’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.5 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, lower than their season average of 5.0.
The Cardinals have gotten the best of the Brewers in head-to-head matchups this season, going 4-3. The Cardinals will take on a right-hander (Cravy) in this game. They have done very well against right-handed starting pitchers this season (27-13), especially at home where they have a 17-4 record. The right-handed Lynn will take the mound against the Brewers. Against righty starters this season, they have an awful 13-27 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 5 games at home.
St. Louis is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home.
St. Louis is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Milwaukee.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis’s last 10 games when playing Milwaukee.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis’s last 8 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee.
The Brewers won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Cardinals are 9-9. The Brewers are 6-6 in close games this season.
Milwaukee has won 35% (7-13) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 75% (12-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Cardinals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Brewers have a 4-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 6-28. The Cardinals have a 7-11 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 24th in home runs, St. Louis has hit 40 this season. Milwaukee ranks 12th with 50 home runs.
Ranking 15th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.65 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at third with 9.22.
Ranking 28th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.658). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at ninth with an OPS of .733.
The Brewers are 10-25 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cardinals are 14-12 when they allow at least one homer.
