John Lackey (3-3, 2.83 ERA) and Jimmy Nelson (2-5, 3.90 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a three-game series between the St. Louis Cardinals (34-18) and the Milwaukee Brewers (18-35) at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the last game 1-0 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jun. 3 and can be seen on FSN-WI and FSN-MW.
Lackey is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his appearances against the Brewers, and goes up against a below-average Milwaukee offense which is batting just .227 this season. Nelson is 0-3 with a 10.24 ERA when pitching against the Cardinals. He takes on a good St. Louis offense which is hitting .266 this season. Ryan Braun (.258, 30 Rs, 12 HRs, 38 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
St. Louis is a -157 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Cardinals have recorded an overall money line of +1,271 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 27-9. St. Louis is an impressive 5-2 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Cardinals have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.8 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. The Cardinals are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.2 per game. St. Louis is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.2 per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Cardinals, who have a team ERA of only 2.70. The Cardinals are the third-best team in the NL at limiting hits to their opponents, allowing only 8.2 hits per game so far this season.
As for their opponent, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,558 and a disappointing record of 13-20 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 7-11 record against NL Central opponents, and a 3-7 record SU. The Brewers average 5.0 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.5 against division foes.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 5-3. The Cardinals have a great 17-4 record at home (27-13 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Nelson takes the mound. Lackey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a inferior 13-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Brewers lost by a margin of one run. The Cardinals are 10-9 in one-run games. The Brewers have a 6-7 record in close games.
When leading after 7 innings, St. Louis is 12-4, while Milwaukee is 7-13.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Cardinals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Brewers have a 6-2 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 6-28. The Cardinals have an 8-11 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 24th in home runs, St. Louis has hit 40 this season. Milwaukee ranks 12th with 50 home runs.
Ranking 15th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.65 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at third with 9.22.
Ranking 28th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.655). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .729.
When the Brewers allow at least one home run, they are 10-25. When the Cardinals allow one or more homers, they have a 14-12 record.
