Lance Lynn (1-2, 3.63 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (15-6) meet A.J. Burnett (0-1, 1.80 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-10) in the first of a three-game division series at Busch Stadium. The game starts at 8:15 p.m. ET on Friday, May. 1 and will air on ROOT-PIT and FSN-MW.
Lynn has a 4.71 ERA and a 5-3 record in his career against the Pirates, but faces a less-than-stellar Pittsburgh offense that’s hitting just .230 on the year. Matt Carpenter (.372, 21 Rs, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 3 with three runs and one RBI. In his career against the Cardinals, Burnett is 9-6 with a 3.87 ERA. He meets a solid St. Louis offense that’s batting .274. Starling Marte (.247, 13 Rs, 6 HRs, 17 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 Wednesday with one run, two RBIs, and one stolen base.
St. Louis, a -140 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Pittsburgh. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Cardinals perform well as a favorite with an 11-4 record and have an overall money line of +678. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (6-2). The Cardinals lead the NL in ERA with a 2.40 team average. The Cardinals don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking third in the league with a 1.11 WHIP.
Switching gears, the Pirates come into this game with a win percentage of .429 when playing as the underdog (3-4) and an overall money line of +78. Against teams in their division, they are 8-8 SU and 3-4 as the underdog. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 3.9 runs per game against teams from the NL Central, higher than their season average of 3.2.
The Cardinals will take on a right-hander (Burnett) in this game. They have done very well against right-handed starting pitchers this season (13-4), especially at home where they have a 7-1 record. Taking the hill against the Pirates will be the right-hander Lynn. They sport a 12-8 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh recorded at least two errors for the sixth time this season.
When the Cardinals play into extra innings, they have a 1-1 record. The Pirates are 0-1 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Cardinals have a 4-0 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 11-5. The Pirates have a 9-1 record when outhitting opponents.
St. Louis and Pittsburgh both rank in the bottom half of the league in runs. St. Louis sits at 16th with 92 runs this season and Pittsburgh ranks 17th with 89.
Ranking 29th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 41 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top half at 12th with 70.
When the Cardinals hit at least one home run, they are 8-2. When the Pirates hit at least one homer, they have an 8-5 record.
