Francisco Liriano (1-1, 2.22 ERA) starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-11) as they square off against John Lackey (1-1, 4.21 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (16-6) in the second of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the last game 2-1 and St. Louis leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 2:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, May. 2 and can be seen on ROOT-PIT and FSN-MW.
Lackey is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in his appearances against the Pirates, and goes up against a below-average Pittsburgh offense which is batting just .230 this season. Matt Carpenter (.378, 21 Rs, 3 HRs, 14 RBIs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4. Liriano is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA when pitching against the Cardinals. He is up against a quality St. Louis offense which is hitting .272 this season. Gregory Polanco (.277, 13 Rs, 1 HR, 7 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
St. Louis is a -121 favorite against Pittsburgh and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. The Cardinals have recorded an overall money line of +778 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 12-4. St. Louis is an impressive 6-2 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Cardinals have seen a decline in scoring against teams inside their division, averaging 3.9 runs per game. They average 4.4 runs per game on the season. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Cardinals, who have a team ERA of only 2.43. The Cardinals are the second-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.10 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Pittsburgh has a 3-4 record and an overall money line of +78. They are 3-4 as the underdog against teams in their division, and 8-8 SU. The Pirates allow 3.2 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the NL Central Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 3.9 against division foes.
The Cardinals have the edge in the season series, 1-0. Lackey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a 12-8 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Pirates lost by a margin of one run. The Cardinals are 2-3 in one-run games. The Pirates have a 4-5 record in close games.
Pittsburgh has won 29% (2-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 67% (6-3) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cardinals are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Pirates have a 4-7 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Pirates are 2-8. The Cardinals have a 2-1 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 24th in home runs, St. Louis has hit 14 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 16th with 18 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Pittsburgh is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.59 per game. St. Louis ranks in the top five at second with 9.33.
Ranking 26th, Pittsburgh is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.633). St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at eighth with an OPS of .739.
The Pirates are 2-6 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Cardinals are 6-3 when they allow at least one homer.
