Runs may be hard to come by in this one as John Lackey (11-8, 2.87 ERA) and the St. Louis Cardinals (87-48) go up against Gerrit Cole (15-8, 2.64 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (80-54) in the last of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals won the last game 4-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 8:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 6 and will air on ESPN.
In his most recent outing, Lackey pitched 6.0 innings, giving up one, striking out eight and walking four in an 8-5 loss to the Nationals. Matt Carpenter (.261, 81 Rs, 21 HRs, 71 RBIs, 3 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. The Pirates were unsuccessful to the Brewers 7-4 the last time Cole pitched. He went 4.0 innings, allowing five runs, striking out two and walking one. Andrew McCutchen (.304, 79 Rs, 20 HRs, 85 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
St. Louis is favored by a slight -114 margin in its matchup against Pittsburgh. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at seven runs. The Cardinals have a winning record of 72-30 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +2,728. They are 5-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. The most recent 10-game stretch for the Cardinals has gone great. Over that span, St. Louis is averaging 5.6 runs per game, well over their season average of 4.1. St. Louis’s pitching staff can be considered for best in its league, with an NL-low 2.71 team ERA. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.1 strikeouts per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Pirates come into this game with a win percentage of .447 when playing as the underdog (17-21) and an overall money line of +1,628. Over the last 10 games, they were unbeaten as the underdog with a perfect 1-0 record and 5-5 SU. They have the second-lowest road ERA in the NL at 3.59.
The Cardinals have gotten the best of the Pirates in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-7. This game will feature Cole (RHP) on the mound against the Cardinals, who have a 39-12 home and 67-32 overall record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Lackey will take the mound against the Pirates, who have a 65-41 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – StL, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 49% (28-29) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 63% (31-18) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Pirates are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Cardinals have a 41-2 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 53-15. The Pirates have a 56-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 20th in runs, St. Louis has earned 550 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 14th with 567 runs.
Ranking 19th, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 366 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 415.
When the Cardinals hit at least one home run, they are 57-21, well-matched with the Pirates who are 52-25 when hitting one or more homers.
