Carlos Martinez (9-3, 2.80 ERA) is on the hill for the St. Louis Cardinals (51-28) as they square off against Odrisamer Despaigne (3-6, 4.94 ERA) and the San Diego Padres (39-43) in the third of a four-game series at Busch Stadium. The Padres won the last game 2-1 and San Diego leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 2:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jul. 4 and can be seen on FSN-SD and FSN-MW.
Martinez is 0-0 with a 16.20 ERA in his appearances against the Padres, but goes up against a below-average San Diego offense which is batting just .240 this season. Jhonny Peralta (.301, 34 Rs, 11 HRs, 41 RBIs, 1 SB) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Despaigne is 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA when pitching against the Cardinals. He is up against a good St. Louis offense which is hitting .261 this season. Justin Upton (.263, 44 Rs, 14 HRs, 46 RBIs, 16 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one stolen base.
This one isn’t expected to be close when St. Louis, a big -180 favorite, takes on San Diego. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of seven runs. The Cardinals have recorded an overall money line of +1,973 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 42-16. The Cardinals are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits at home with an impressive 9.0 per game. St. Louis is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks, earning an average of 3.1 per game. Turning to the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Cardinals, who have a team ERA of only 2.65. The Cardinals are the third-best team in the NL at limiting hits to their opponents, allowing only 8.2 hits per game so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Cardinals, who rank fifth in the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.1.
In games where it is the underdog, San Diego has a 17-25 record and an overall money line of -490.
The Padres have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Cardinals have a great 26-5 record at home (44-16 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Despaigne takes the mound. Martinez (RHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have a 28-35 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
San Diego has won 55% (21-17) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 70% (21-9) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Cardinals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Padres have a 10-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
It looks like the Padres have a slight leg up on the Cardinals, as the Padres have won their last two games while the Cardinals have lost their last four.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 35-9. The Padres have a 28-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 20th, St. Louis is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 315 this season. San Diego ranks in the top half at 14th with 334.
Ranking 21st, San Diego is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 208 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top half at 11th with 244.
When the Cardinals hit at least one home run, they are 31-11, well-matched with the Padres who are 26-14 when hitting one or more homers.
