The Stanley Cup Final is set. With history on the line, the Pittsburgh Penguins will take on the Nashville Predators for ultimate hockey glory.
For the second consecutive year, the Penguins are going up against a team looking for their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. Last season, it was the San Jose Sharks led by grizzled veterans Joe Thornton, Brent Burns and Patrick Marleau. This go around, it’s the Nashville Predators, young and energetic and venturing into uncharted territory for the organization.
Pittsburgh is trying to become the first team since the Detroit Red Wings of 1997-98 to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions. They have overcome an ever-changing lineup due to injury concerns and a goaltender switch to triumph over the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference Final. Unfazed by an early series deficit, the Pens fought back and clinched the series in double overtime in Game 7 on home ice.
Chris Kunitz was the man with the golden goal.
Radio Sync'd Highlight: Kunitz's 2OT goal sends the Pens back to the Stanley Cup Finals, w/ Mike Lange's radio call. pic.twitter.com/bnjFF1Z1kc
— Benstonium (@Benstonium) May 26, 2017
Nashville found themselves locked in a back-and-forth physical series with the Anaheim Ducks. Even though Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher were sidelined for the final two games of the series, the Predators still won Game 5 in Anaheim and came home to ice the series.
How? Huge contributions from their depth players. Guys like Pontus Aberg, Austin Watson and Colton Sissons. Sissons made history by netting a hat trick in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final.
He’s in elite company.
Talk about history for Colton Sissons. #HatTrick #Preds pic.twitter.com/UnKXga6BCe
— Mickey Ryan (@MickeyRyan1045) May 23, 2017
In two meetings between the Pens and Preds this season, the home team won handily both times.
Can Pekka Rinne and the Nashville Predators power past the Pittsburgh Penguins, or will Sidney Crosby get his third championship ring?
Pittsburgh is a -155 to win the series. Nashville is +135.
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory.
Offense: advantage Penguins.
Nashville unfortunately will have to play this entire series without their best player. They were able to win the last two games of the Western Conference Final without Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher. I suppose winning for them was a serviceable rallying cry. But going up against the Penguins without either one of them is going to be one uphill battle.
Johansen is definitely out for the rest of the playoffs. Fisher is probable for Game 1. Craig Smith, who has been battling a lower-body injury the whole postseason, is doubtful to return for Game 1, though the Preds are not ruling anything out.
The Penguins have injury concerns of their own. The difference is that the problems lie with their depth players and not their marquee stars. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel and Jake Guentzel all seem to have clean bills of health.
Patric Hornqvist bounced in and out of the lineup for the Penguins, and his upper-body injury may keep him out longer. Tom Kuhnhackl remains out with a lower-body injury for the foreseeable future.
Pittsburgh’s man power is simply better given that Johansen is out. They may be caught off guard however by just how much Nashville is able to get out of their depth forwards. Anyone on the ice is a weapon at any time because of the positioning they have in place.
Sissons is going to be an X-factor for the Predators. His contributions in Games 5 and 6 were incredible, but he will need to keep up that pace as a top-six forward.
More will be needed out of Mike Fisher if and when he comes back. Fisher has yet to register a point in 14 games and has been bounced to the fourth line despite having 42 points in the regular season.
Viktor Arvidsson had five assists in the Western Conference Final but did not score (as I predicted!).
Filip Forsberg is currently riding a seven-game point streak. He had five goals and two assists against the Ducks.
I’ll touch on the importance of Phil Kessel in a bit when we get to special teams, but for the Penguins they will need their bottom six to answer back. The Predators are a deep team. They won’t get a ton of ice time, but if the Penguins can get more out of guys like Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino and Matt Cullen, they best get it.
Carter Rowney will be an interesting guy to keep an eye on. Rowney is an injury replacement player and had one game with three assists in the Eastern Conference Final. He made some terrific plays in overtime in Game 7. Rowney is hardly the most skilled guy on the ice, but it’s all hands on deck.
But let’s be real, any team without their best player going up against the likes of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel is going to be at a disadvantage.
Defense: advantage Predators.
In terms of offensive production, Nashville’s lack of star power in the forward lines is completely made up for in their defensive pairings.
Ryan Ellis had a pair of assists in the Western Conference Final. P.K. Subban had a goal and two assists. Roman Josi had a goal and an assist.
All eyes are going to be on P.K. Subban, in part because of the E:60 profile that was just released on him. Subban is the star of this team as one of the most popular players in the league. He’s had quite an emotional journey the last year- getting exiled from his old team, his tearful return, the revisiting of his old connections at the Montreal children’s hospital, and making an immediate impact as the show-stopping puck mover at the Predators’ blue line.
It’s hard not to like the guy. And there’s one guy in the opposing locker room that has an idea of what he’s going through.
https://twitter.com/Michael_Traikos/status/868875425602318338
Kessel too was ousted from his eastern Canadian team for alleged character issues and was essentially told “good riddance.” And Kessel went on to win the Stanley Cup in his first year in Pittsburgh.
Could history be repeating itself in Nashville?
Other than the astronomical pressure put on Subban, the Predators’ defensive system will be put to the ultimate test. Their goaltender is riding an incredible hot streak that has earned him a 1.70 goals-against average, .941 save percentage and a pair of shutouts. His defense has given him all the support a goaltender can ask for.
Just like how the Penguins have the Preds beat in star power in the forward lines, it’s hard to beat Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis as a top four.
The return of Justin Schultz was enormous for the Penguins. Schultz is easily the best offensive player on the blueline for Pittsburgh, and he proved how impactful he can be in Game 7. Schultz had a goal and assist.
Kris Letang is out for the postseason and seventh defenseman Chad Ruhwedel is out. The Pens cannot afford another defenseman leaving the lineup against as fast a team as Nashville. That means that a lot rides on Schultz and Trevor Daley staying healthy.
And that’s a hard bet to make.
Point goes to the Preds.
Special teams: advantage Penguins.
This is where Phil Kessel and P.K. Subban take centerstage. Other than the media narratives that surround this headlining matchup, Kessel and Subban are flat two of the best powerplay forces in the National Hockey League.
And both have been ripped for their pre-game warmup routine. Mike Milbury called P.K. Subban a “clown” for doing a little jig and Kessel was mocked by Don Cherry for joking with the team trainer and Ron Hainsey during line rushes.
Don Cherry ripping Kessel because Cherry hates fun, personality, Americans, and just about everything else on Earth that he can't pronounce. pic.twitter.com/eNJchJDwUi
— Mike Pfeil (@mikeFAIL) May 26, 2017
It always amazes me that Old Time Hockey People adore gritty fighter-grinder-hustler types that are able to bring the room together, character guys who keep the room loose, yet when a star player does something to try and keep guys from tensing up before the biggest games of their lives, he’s colorful and unfocused.
Gimme a break. Subban and Kessel are awesome, so shut up.
Five of Kessel’s seven goals this postseason came on the man advantage. He has 11 points on the powerplay. Subban hasn’t tallied on the powerplay yet, but he does have five assists and is a wizard at moving the puck around.
The Penguins scored six times on the Senators’ penalty kill. Nashville only broke through Anaheim’s twice.
Again. It’s hard to beat Crosby, Malkin and Kessel when it comes to personnel.
Goaltending: advantage Predators.
This is a tough call. Rinne is having an incredible postseason run, reminiscent of J.S. Giguere’s run to the Conn Smythe in 2003 with the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. It’s the best combination of a goaltender getting hot and a defense giving him the best looks to stop.
Matt Murray is coming in fresh, which could be an advantage. After Marc-Andre Fleury carried the load for nine wins, Murray earned the last three. In four games as the Pens’ starter, Murray posted a 1.35 goals-against average and .946 save percentage with a shutout in the mix.
Murray of course took over for an injured Fleury at the end of last year in the regular season and led the Penguins to the Cup. Can he do it again?
It’s hard to say he can’t. I give Rinne the edge solely because of the staff in front of him. When the Predators’ defense is at their most effective, Rinne sees most of his shots and they come from easy-to-read angles. Anything head-on or from the outside of the circles is essentially a guaranteed stop.
Where Rinne gets in trouble is when shooters are able to power inside the hashmarks and beat him short side.
#GottaSeeIt: Rickard Rakell blasts one past Pekka Rinne to put the Ducks up 1-0. #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/GCvLy2UfrX
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 19, 2017
Murray’s lateral movement is occasionally susceptible to errors and his own defense hangs him out to dry, be it abandoning their post or screening Murray unnecessarily.
But it’s all nitpicking at this point. Either one of these guys could hoist the Cup come June 12th and it would be hard to complain with how it happened.
Bold predictions
1) Filip Forsberg will lead the series in points.
2) P.K. Subban will score a goal and celly like there’s no tomorrow.
3) Sidney Crosby will lose his first series after touching the Prince of Wales Trophy.
Pittsburgh has had an incredible run. But I think their last series with Ottawa was somewhat telling. The Senators played a very conservative style of play and lacked big-name offensive stars up front. Erik Karlsson played like a god and the Sens were strong at home, forcing a Game 7.
But like Chris Kunitz said, the Nashville have four Erik Karlssons on defense. They run their system to perfection and have already slain some of the best offensive powerhouses in the league. If Ottawa gave Pittsburgh seven games worth of trouble, imagine what the Predators can do at three times the speed?
I’m taking a big leap here. But what’s one more thrill in what has been a long line of surprises this season?
Besides, wouldn’t P.K. Subban coming back to the Montreal Children’s Hospital with the Stanley Cup just be so, so satisfying?
Welcome to Smashville. They win this series at home.
Prediction: Predators in 6.
