In the American League East, the Boston Red Sox have extended their division lead over the Yankees to 5.0 games while the Cleveland Indians lead the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals in the AL Central by 6.0 and 6.5 games respectively. In the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs hold slim leads over the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 and 2.0 games respectively. The division winners in the AL West, NL East, and NL West are practically sealed – Houston Astros, Washington Nationals, and Los Angeles Dodgers respectively. In this Sunday Night Baseball betting preview, the St. Louis Cardinals are still very much alive in the NL Central race while the Pittsburgh Pirates have a glimmer of hope, being 6.0 games back.
Details
Date – Sunday August 20th, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – PIT -108
Why The Cardinals Might Win
On the mound for this matchup is Mike Leake – 7-11 record, 3.88 ERA, 4.02 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .278/.326/.418. While these statistics indicate a back-end starting pitcher, Leake has struggled during the latter half of the season in comparison to the first half – 1-4 record, 6.29 ERA, and 1.86 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .353/.412/.453. Additionally, Leake has been extremely inconsistent over his last eight starts, with most of his starts leaning towards the bad side. Leake has faced the Pirates three times this season, compiling a 1-0 record to go along with a 3.12 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and 3.1 K/9 while allowing Pirates’ batters to slash .303/.360/.409 – decent compared to his overall statistics. In his three starts against the Pirates, Leake has allowed 1 ER, 3 ER (4 R), and 2 ER. If he can limit the Pirates to three runs or less, the Cardinals should have a good chance of winning.
It’s also worth noting that Leake has performed better at home than on the road this season. He has a 3.44 ERA at home compared to 44.3 on the road. The main difference has been walks. Leake has only ceded 17 base on balls in his 81 innings pitched at home. However, on the road, he has walked 18 batters in his 63 innings pitched. His worst road game of the season for walks came at Pittsburgh on July 14th. He gave up five in five innings of work in that contest.
Why The Pirates Might Win
Another back-end starting pitcher, Ivan Nova is 10-10 so far this season with a 3.77 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .272/.307/.450. Similar to Leake, Nova has struggled in the second half of the season compared to the first half – 1-4 record, 5.77 ERA, and 1.63 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .331/.381/.563. However, Nova has been slightly better than Leake overall on the season as well as during the second half – he’s recorded quality starts in half of his last eight starts, although the quality starts haven’t necessarily been pretty. In Nova’s only start this year against the Cardinals way back on April 17th, he pitched a gem – 8 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, and 3K. If Nova can come close to replicating this line, the Pirates will be feeling pretty comfortable.
Outlook
Although Nova hasn’t faced the Cardinals’ batters much, Leake has had a long history against some of the Pirates’ batters. Here are some notable one-on-one matchups between Leake and the Pirates:
Andrew McCutchen: .271/.340/.365 with 2 HR, 6 BB, and 19 K in 85 AB
Josh Harrison: .214/.239/.310 with 1 HR, 1 BB, and 3 K in 42 AB
Starling Marte: .250/.298/.364 with 1 HR, 0 BB, and 11 K in 44 AB
Jordy Mercer: .364/.421/.424 with 0 HR, 4 BB, and 2 K in 33 AB
David Freese: .444/.474/.639 with 1 HR, 4 2B, 2 BB, and 2 K in 16 AB
John Jaso: .214/.214/.429 with 0 HR, 0 BB, and 1 K in 14 AB
Adam Frazier: .444/.444/.667 in 9 AB
The numbers above have mixed indications of how Leake will be most likely to perform. However, the Cardinals have been on a roll, going 7-3 over their last 10 games, putting them back in the thick of things in the NL Central race, while the Pirates are losers of their last six games and 3-7 over their last 10 games. The Cardinals are slight underdogs and with more motivation to finish off the season strong, I like their chances going into this matchup.
Sunday Night Baseball Pick: STL -102
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