Aided by a six-game winning streak, the Yankees have pulled ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East by 0.5 games. The Indians, on their own nine-game winning streak, have a 3.0 game lead over the Royals in the AL Central – the lead did not increase much due to the Royals own 9–1 run over their last 10 games. The Astros, Nationals, and Dodgers continue to dominate their respective divisions, with the Dodgers on another winning stream – seven games this time. In the NL Central, the Cubs have a 1.5 game lead over the Brewers. In this Sunday’s night game, the Giants are facing off against the Dodgers, with the Dodgers taking the first two games of this series – let’s take a look at tonight’s game.
Details
Date – Sunday July 30th, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – Dodgers -142
Why The Giants Might Win
Sitting in last place in the NL West and 33.5 games back of the Dodgers, the Giants are having a forgettable 2017 season. Ever since Madison Bumgarner was involved in a freak dirt-bike accident two weeks into the season, the Giants have not been able to find any sort of momentum. However, Bumgarner has a chance to make up for it (somewhat) in this classic matchup tonight. In Bumgarner’s seven starts this year, he is 1–4 with a 3.38 ERA, 3.61 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .236/.276/.412. His six HRs allowed in only 45.1 innings pitched translates to about one HR allowed every 7.5 innings pitched – not something you’d expect from Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has yet to face the Dodgers this season, he has relative success against them in his career. Let’s take a look at how he’s fared against Dodgers’ players where he’s dominated or been dominated:
- Enrique Hernandez .500/.520/1.042 with 3 HRs allowed in 48 at-bats
- Logan Forsythe .125/.300/.125 with 4 BB and 5 K in 16 AB
- Yasmani Grandal .083/.143/.167 with 0 BB and 6 K in 12 AB
- Hyun-Jin Ryu No hits allowed and 3 K in 6 AB
The Giants have had few bright spots this season, but if they ever needed some type of momentum boost, Bumgarner is the one they’d like to have on the mound to do so.
Why The Dodgers Might Win
The Dodgers are having a season to be remembered, as they are currently 73–31 (.702) and in the midst of a seven-game winning streak while leading the MLB in run differential (+184). Their man on the mound tonight, Hyun-Jin Ryu, is 3–6 with a 4.17 ERA, 4.88 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .280/.341/.507. His 15 HRs allowed in only 77.2 IP averages out to one HR allowed every five innings – less than spectacular for a team playing as good as the Dodgers. Additionally, Ryu has failed to reach six innings pitched in his last five starts, which might be something to be worried about. Here’s how Ryu has fared against Giants’ batters in the past:
- Buster Posey .320/.393/.560 with 1 HR, 3 BB, and 3 K in 25 AB
- Hunter Pence .440/.481/.520 with 0 HR, 2 BB, and 4 K in 25 AB
- Brandon Crawford .188/.235/.313 with 0 HR, 1 BB, and 3 K in 16 AB
- Madison Bumgarner .143/.143/.143 with 0 HR, 0 BB, and 4 K in 7 AB
The Dodgers just seem like they can’t lose and facing a Bumgarner who has looked out of sorts should certainly help their chances.
Outlook
Since coming back from the freak injury, Bumgarner has been decent, but not great. He has posted a 3.93 ERA in three starts while the Giants have gone 1-2 in those contests. He has had mixed results. His first start was seven innings of work with just four hits but two of them were home runs. He again gave up two home runs in his second start, lasting 6.1 innings while allowing four earned. He allowed just one earned run in his last start but only pitched five innings. On the season now, the Giants have won just one game that Bumgarner has started, which is a bit of a concern. He’s supposed to be their staff ace.
However, this game certainly has the look and feel to be a toss-up decided by one run. As a result of pegging the chances of both teams to win at 50/50. We’ll take a flier with the Giants at this price.
Pick: Giants +136
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