The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals are both five games back of the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the National League Central division. While the Pirates have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games, the Cardinals are mired in a bit of a slump, having gone 3-7 over their last 10 games. The Pirates will be without catcher Francisco Cervelli, who was placed on the 7-day disabled list due to a concussion while outfielder Dexter Fowler might be able to return to the Cardinals’ lineup since he is currently listed as day-to-day. The back-ends of the starting pitching rotations for both teams will be dueling it out in this game in what could be a high scoring Sunday Night Baseball affair.
Details
Date – Sunday June 25th, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – STL -151
Why The Pirates Might Win
At 24 years of age, Chad Kuhl has three effective pitches in his arsenal, with a repertoire as a ground-ball pitcher due to the sink and late life on his pitches. His two-seam sinking fastball clocks at 94 to 97 mph – it’s Kuhl’s best and most often used pitch (two-thirds of the time). Kuhl’s sinker fastball allows him to set up his slider and changeup. With a very good repeatable delivery, Kuhl is able to hold runners on base and field very well for his position. However, Kuhl has a history of inconsistent command and control. So far this season, Kuhl has compiled an abysmal 2-6 record, with a 5.46 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 53 strikeouts, and 27 walks allowed in 64.1 innings pitched. Opponents have slashed .291/.364/.494 against Kuhl so far this season – not the type of line you’d want to see in a starting pitcher. However, Kuhl has looked better in the last month, going 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 17 strikeouts, and 10 walks allowed in 20.0 innings pitched. Kuhl has also completed five innings in each of his last four starts, allowing only two, one, three, and two earned runs respectively. If you’re optimistic about Kuhl’s progress so far this season, it doesn’t hurt that he is currently facing a slumping Cardinals team in need of some serious offensive production.
Why The Cardinals Might Win
After a relatively mediocre 2016 season, Mike Leake has bounced back this year, compiling a 5-6 record to go along with a 3.03 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 66 strikeouts, and 18 walks allowed in 92.0 innings pitched. However, Leake’s subpar record is mainly a reflection of the Cardinals’ inability to provide him with run support. Opponents have slashed a measly .237/.279/.374 so far this year against Leake. What’s concerning is that over the past month, Leake has gone 0-4 with a 5.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and allowing 5 home runs in only 30.2 innings pitched. Opponents have also slashed much better against Leake during this period, with a .288/.346/.441 line – a major cause for concern. While Leake has gone at least five innings in each of his last five starts, he has also allowed four runs or more in three of the five starts. One positive note is that Leake earned a quality start in his last outing, going six innings while only allowed one earned run, albeit against the lowly Phillies. If Leake can get back to his former self during the first two months of the season, the Cardinals should be able to win this matchup.
Sunday Night Baseball Outlook
While Kuhl has been trending in a positive direction and Leake trending in the opposite direction, both clubs must start winning more games in order to gain traction on the NL Central race. Here are the hitters that have fared well or struggled in their lifetime against Leake and Kuhl respectively (minimum 8 at-bats):
John Jaso (PIT) – .091/.091/.273 in 11 AB
Jordy Mercer (PIT) – .367/.394/.433 in 30 AB
David Freese (PIT) – .516/.531/.742 in 31 AB
Gregory Polanco (PIT) – .179/.281/.214 in 28 AB
Stephen Piscotty (STL) – .125/.125/.250 in 8 AB
Although the Pirates’ hitters have seen Leake on multiple occasions, the Cardinals have only faced Kuhl three times. Given the fact that Leake is a more consistent and reliable starting pitcher coupled with the fact that the Pirates have struggled on the road (15-22 record), the Cardinals should be able to squeak out a win in a tightly contested Sunday Night Baseball matchup.
Pick: Cardinals -151
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