The biggest name in college basketball will go head to head with the greatest quarterback in NFL history this weekend in a prop bet that only the people at online sportsbook BetDSI could have thought up. Zion Williamson has turned the college basketball world on its head in 20 games with the Duke Blue Devils. He has been a force of nature in the low post, and he is the reason that certain NBA teams have already started tanking. As for Tom Brady, he is simply the GOAT now. Brady has won five Super Bowls during his time with the New England Patriots, and his playoff stats are out of this world. However, the oddsmakers think he is unlikely to complete as many passes as the number of points and rebounds Duke’s double-double machine will rack up.
Which will be higher?
Zion Williamson total points and rebounds on 2/2/19 -140
Total Brady pass completions on 2/3/19 +110
Williamson and the Blue Devils will be taking on the St. John’s Red Storm on Saturday. Many of the players on Duke don’t remember that St. John’s was able to pull off a big upset against the Blue Devils in Madison Square Garden last year, but Mike Krzyzewski will certainly drill that point home prior to Saturday’s game.
On numbers alone, Williamson should be a bigger favorite than this. He is averaging 22 PPG and 9.2 RPG this year, while Brady averaged 23.4 completed passes per game this season. Oddsmakers believe that Brady will throw, and complete, more passes in the Super Bowl, and they have bumped the over/under for his completions to 25.5, but that is still well short of Zion’s combined total.
Let’s dig into this one a little bit more. It would be logical to assume that Williamson tore it up during their non-conference schedule and his performance may be dipping against ACC opponents given this line. That’s not the case though, and he has been even more impressive against conference foes. Over his last five games his combined points and assists have equaled 45, 36, 32, 29, and 35. It’s not like Duke has been playing the dregs of the conference either, with the two best performances in that stretch coming against Syracuse and Virginia.
Maybe St. John’s is very good on defense or can defend well in the paint? That doesn’t seem to be the case either. Their defense is ranked 100th in the nation according to Ken Pomeroy, and they don’t have much of a presence in the paint. Their leading rebounder is a guard, and their tallest starter is just 6’7 and doesn’t have the bulk of Zion.
To feel confident in taking Brady against Zion here, you have to hope that Brady will finish with at least 32 completions. He has done that just eight times in 39 career playoff games, but his four best games in this regard all came in the last four years. The two playoff games where he completed the most passes were Super Bowl LI and Super Bowl XLIX, but you have to take Zion Williamson at this price.
