The No. 7-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (23-6) and the Atlantic Coast’s 12th-ranked offense welcome the Syracuse Orange (19-10) and the fifth-ranked defense in the conference. Action starts at 7:00 pm ET on Monday, Feb. 29 and can be seen on ESP and ES3.
The Tar Heels fell to Virginia 79-74 on Saturday. Joel Berry II was the team’s leading scorer with 21 points. The Orange are coming off a 75-66 win over North Carolina State on Saturday. Michael Gbinije was the game’s top scorer, accumulating 34 points on 11-for-18 shooting.
Over the last five games, Gbinije has been on fire for the Orange. During that stretch, he has averaged 19.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 3.8 three-pointers.
The Tar Heels could own the offensive glass in this matchup, as they rank fifth in the nation in OR% at 39.1%. Conversely, Syracuse places 279th in the nation on the defensive backboards with a DR% of 65.4%.
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Tar Heels winning the first matchup 84-73. Isaiah Hicks was a top performer in the victory with 21 points and eight rebounds.
The Tar Heels are looking to build on their records of 23-6 Straight Up (SU) and 11-16-2 Against The Spread (ATS). North Carolina has been struggling of late. In the last 10 games, North Carolina has only averaged 68.3 points per game compared to the 83.4 they’ve averaged on the season. The Tar Heels are a dangerously accurate shooting team from the line with a .732 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. The rebounding edge goes to the Tar Heels in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.8 boards per game. The Tar Heels, sporting the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.70), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team.
Over on the other bench, the Orange head into the game with records of 14-14 ATS and 19-10 SU. During the last 10 games, they averaged 78.1 PPG, above their 70.1 PPG season average. The Orange rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, ranking 39th in the nation with 257 made (8.0 per game). The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Orange on the defensive end. They allowed 70.4 points per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 64.8. The Syracuse defense has been a problem for competitors, allowing only .304 shooting from three-point range.
North Carolina beat Syracuse in their most recent meeting this season, bringing the head-to-head record to an even 2-2 SU. With a 2-1-1 record, the Orange have the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – UNC, ATS Winner – UNC
Notes
The North Carolina Tar Heels average 83.4 points per game, ranking eighth in the nation. The Syracuse Orange rank 25th in points allowed with 64.8.
The North Carolina Tar Heels rank ninth for their offensive rating of 117.5. The Syracuse Orange have a defensive rating of 99.5 (ranked 76th).
On average, North Carolina has 71.0 possessions per game and scores 1.175 points on each possession. Syracuse has both fewer possessions (64.8) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.081).
The Syracuse Orange average an effective field goal percentage of 50.3% this season. The North Carolina Tar Heels have an outstanding 7-2 record in games where opponents have an eFG% of 50.3% or greater.
On average, North Carolina attempts 17.0 three pointers and Syracuse attempts 24.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the North Carolina Tar Heels are undefeated at 8-0 while the Syracuse Orange have a solid 15-9 record.
The third-ranked team in the category, North Carolina has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.70 this season. Syracuse ranks outside the top 100 at 104th with an A/TO of 1.19.
Ranked 17th in the nation, North Carolina averages 40.8 rebounds per game. Syracuse ranks lower at 181st with 36.1 RPG.
North Carolina ranks 66th in defensive rebounding. When it comes to offensive rebounds, Syracuse ranks 86th.
On average, North Carolina forces a turnover rate of 18.8%. When Syracuse turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a stellar 12-2 record.
