Offense meets defense when the No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers (14-1, 3-0 ACC) welcome the Syracuse Orange (12-4, 1-2 ACC) to John Paul Jones Arena. The game is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 9, 2018.
Virginia is a 9-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 115 points.
Syracuse Orange vs. Virginia Cavaliers ATS Prediction
The last time the Orange played, they were topped by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 51-49. Notre Dame’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Syracuse. The Fighting Irish had a rate of 0.214 (below their season average of 0.282), while the Orange posted a mark of 0.109 (below their season average of 0.301). Tyus Battle was the game’s high scorer with 21 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
The Cavaliers were victorious over the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels in their last contest, 61-49. Virginia’s 16.2 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over North Carolina, who had a mark of 24.4. The Cavaliers’ mark was worse than their season average of 12.7, while the Tar Heels’ was above their season average of 14.8. Devon Hall was Virginia’s high scorer with 16 points on 6-for-8 shooting.
The game should be a showdown of strength against strength as the high-octane offense of Virginia takes on the elite defense of Syracuse. The Cavaliers rank 48th in offensive efficiency, while the Orange are 35th in defensive efficiency. Also, the Orange, who rank 37th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.291), will face a tough test against the Cavaliers, who rank 58th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.191).
Syracuse has an outstanding 12-4 straight up (SU) record, but they have trouble covering the spread (6-8 against the spread (ATS)). Orange games tend to go under the projected point total (64.3 percent).
Meanwhile, Virginia is 14-1 SU and 9-3 ATS. Cavaliers games also have a tendency to finish under the projected point total (75.0 percent).
After the Orange won the lone contest against the Cavaliers last season, 66-62, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Orange had a much better free throw rate (0.310 vs. 0.040) and had a better turnover percentage (19.1 vs. 22.3).
Syracuse Orange vs. Virginia Cavaliers ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – Virginia, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Syracuse is 2-2 ATS with 3 overs and 1 under.
Virginia is 5-2 ATS at home with 5 unders and 2 overs.
Virginia ranks first in assists allowed per game (8.2) while Syracuse ranks 200th (15.5).
The Orange rank 29th in rebounds per game (40.1) while the Cavaliers rank 199th (33.8).
Virginia ranks second in steals allowed per game (4.0) while Syracuse ranks 68th (5.9).
Both of these teams are exceptional at blocking the ball. The Orange are sixth in the NCAA with 6.4 blocks per game while the Cavaliers are 56th with 4.3 blocks per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Syracuse is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Virginia is 2-1 ATS with 3 unders over their last five games.
The Orange’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 3.2, down from 7.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 71.6 points per game (0.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 50.8 points per game (1.7 below their season average).
