In the second of a three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays (69-71) and the Boston Red Sox (66-74) at Tropicana Field, Matt Moore (1-3, 8.04 ERA) and Rick Porcello (7-12, 5.12 ERA) take the mound. The Rays won the last game 8-4 and Tampa Bay leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 6:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 12 and will air on SUN and NESN.
In his last start, Moore pitched 4.2 innings, allowing two runs, striking out three and walking two in a 3-2 loss to the Yankees. Steven Souza Jr. (.218, 48 Rs, 15 HRs, 35 RBIs, 11 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base. The Red Sox were victorious over the Blue Jays 11-4 the last time Porcello pitched. He went 7.1 innings, giving up three runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking two. David Ortiz (.271, 65 Rs, 32 HRs, 91 RBIs) has been doing well offensively for the Red Sox, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
Tampa Bay is a -123 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Rays are 33-32 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -573. They have an SU record of 27-29 against teams in their division and an 11-12 record when they were the favorite in those games. Tampa Bay has averaged 5.4 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 3.8. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Rays are fifth in the AL in hits allowed at home with just 8.1 per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Red Sox come into this game with a win percentage of .460 when playing as the underdog (29-34) and an overall money line of -1,034. Against divisional opponents, they are 23-33 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 12-16 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 6.1 runs per game, above their 4.7 season average. Boston’s pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 5.4 runs per game against teams from the AL East, higher than their season average of 4.8.
The Rays have gotten the best of the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups this season, going 7-6. This game will feature Porcello (RHP) on the mound against the Rays, who have a 43-55 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The left-handed Moore will take the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 17-21 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – TB, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 47% (32-36) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Tampa Bay has won 48% (28-30) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Rays have a 2-7 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 49-22. The Red Sox have a 52-8 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 27th, Tampa Bay is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 542 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 650.
Ranking 18th, Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 383 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 15th with 409.
The Rays are 51-39 when they hit at least one home run. The Red Sox perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 51-42 record.
