Drew Smyly (2-2, 3.59 ERA) and Rich Hill (0-0, 0.00 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Tampa Bay Rays (69-72) and the Boston Red Sox (67-74) at Tropicana Field. The Red Sox won the last game 10-4 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 13 and can be seen on SUN and NESN.
Smyly pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering four runs, striking out three and walking one in a 5-4 defeat to the Tigers. Evan Longoria (.275, 63 Rs, 19 HRs, 68 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. This is the first time Hill will take the hill this season. David Ortiz (.275, 67 Rs, 34 HRs, 95 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Red Sox, going 3 for 4 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and four RBIs.
Tampa Bay is a -137 favorite against Boston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Rays have an overall money line of -473 and a record as the favorite of 34-32. Within its division, Tampa Bay has a 12-12 record as favorite and a 28-29 record SU. The Rays have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.9 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.9 runs per game. Turning to the pitchers, the Rays are the fifth-best team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.1 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 29-35 record and an overall money line of -1,134. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 12-17 record against fellow AL East members, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.6 runs per game by averaging 6.1 during that stretch. The Red Sox allow 4.8 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the AL East Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 5.5 against division foes.
The Rays have a 26-16 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Hill takes the mound. Smyly (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 17-21 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – TB, O/U – Over
Notes
Tampa Bay has won 47% (28-31) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Boston has won 48% (33-36) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Red Sox are coming into this meeting after a high-scoring game where they scored an impressive 10 runs. The Rays have a 0-8 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 49-22. The Red Sox have a 53-8 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th in runs, Tampa Bay has earned 546 this season. Boston ranks third with 660 runs.
Ranking 19th, Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 386 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 15th with 412.
When the Rays hit at least one home run, they are 51-40, well-matched with the Red Sox who are 52-42 when hitting one or more homers.
