It will be a battle between Big 12 opponents when the No. 22 Baylor Bears (12-3) welcome the TCU Horned Frogs (9-6) to Ferrell Center. The game starts at 8:15 pm ET on Wednesday, Jan. 13 and will air on ESW and ES3.
The Bears were victorious over Iowa State 94-89 on Saturday. Johnathan Motley fueled the Bears, recording 27 points and 13 rebounds to notch his second double-double this season. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 58-57 win over Texas on Saturday. Brandon Parrish shot 5 for 6 and led in scoring with 15 points.
Over the last five games, Taurean Prince has been playing at a high level for the Bears. During that stretch, he has averaged 17.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.0 block, and 1.2 three-pointers.
Despite a 12-3 Straight Up (SU) record, the Bears have not fared well Against The Spread (ATS) with a 3-6 record. The Bears are a dangerously accurate shooting team from the line with a .756 free throw percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. Baylor has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 41.2 rebounds per game. The Bears, sporting the fifth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.73), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Turning to the defensive side, the Bears are 40th in the country in steals with 8.1 per game. Expect Baylor to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Horned Frogs, who are one of the most foul-prone teams in the nation with an average of 21.7 fouls per game.
On the other side, the Horned Frogs head into the game with records of 5-4 ATS and 9-6 SU. TCU’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents making only 6.0 shots from the three-point line per game.
Baylor and TCU will be facing off in their first head-to-head clash of the season. When they last met the Bears were winners, bringing their SU record to 7-2 over TCU in the most recent games. Additionally, with a 5-4 record, Baylor has the advantage ATS. Baylor had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) three times over the last five matchups. TCU has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor
Notes
Baylor is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor’s last 6 games.
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor’s last 5 games when playing TCU.
Baylor is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against TCU.
In its last game, TCU won by a margin of one point. Baylor is 1-0 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. TCU also has a 1-0 record in close games.
The Baylor Bears have a defensive rating of 97.0 (ranked 78th), while the TCU Horned Frogs have an offensive rating of 100.4 (ranked 265th).
The TCU Horned Frogs average a field goal percentage of 42.9% this season. The Baylor Bears have a winning 5-3 record in games where opponents have a FG% of 42.9% or greater.
The Baylor Bears and the TCU Horned Frogs both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Baylor is 90th and 54th in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while TCU ranks 271st and 234th in these categories.
The Baylor Bears top the nation in assists, earning 21.3 per game this season. With their 12.6 assists per game, the TCU Horned Frogs rank just 245th.
TCU, the 95th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.3 per game. Baylor does worse, ranked 115th with 4.0.
Baylor is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking ninth. TCU ranks just 212th in defensive rebounds.
TCU has forced an average turnover percentage of 22.2% this season. Baylor has a losing 1-2 record when its TO% is 22.2% or higher.
