The No. 16 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1, 0-1 Big 12) travel to Baylor to take on the Bears (10-3, 0-1 Big 12) in a game that has the potential to be high-scoring. The game can be seen on ESPNews at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 2, 2018.
Baylor is a 1.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 148.5 points.
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears Betting Prediction
In the Horned Frogs’ last matchup, they were defeated by the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners, 90-89. Oklahoma’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over TCU. The Sooners had a rate of 0.355 (above their season average of 0.242), while the Horned Frogs posted a mark of 0.284. Kenrich Williams was TCU’s high scorer with 22 points on 5-for-15 shooting.
The Bears were blown out by the No. 22 Texas Tech Red Raiders in their last outing, 77-53. Texas Tech out-rebounded Baylor. The Red Raiders had 15 offensive rebounds and 39 total rebounds, while the Bears had eight and 21, respectively. With 12 points on 4-for-8 shooting, Mark Vital led Baylor in scoring.
It might turn into a shootout as two of the nation’s premier offenses square off. Baylor currently ranks 24th with 117.6 points per 100 possessions and TCU is 13th (120.3).
TCU comes into the contest with records of 12-1 straight up (SU) and 6-6 against the spread (ATS). Of the Horned Frogs’ 12 games that accepted bets, eight have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Baylor owns records of 10-3 SU and 3-3 ATS. Unlike TCU, Bears games have a tendency to go under the total (66.7 percent).
After the Bears won both contests against the Horned Frogs last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last matchup, Baylor won 70-52. The Bears’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Horned Frogs. Baylor had a rate of 40.7, while TCU posted a mark of 28.6.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – TCU, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
TCU is 2-1 ATS on the road with 2 overs and 1 under.
Baylor is 1-1 ATS at home with 1 over and 1 under.
Baylor ranks 31st in assists per game (17.4) while TCU ranks 226th in assists allowed per game (16.5).
The Bears rank 26th in steals allowed per game (5.0) while the Horned Frogs rank 77th (5.9).
Baylor ranks 32nd in blocks per game (5.2) while TCU ranks 80th (3.8).
The Bears rank 192nd in three pointers attempted per game (20.6) while the Horned Frogs rank 220th in three pointers allowed per game (24.7).
TCU allows the third-fewest rebounds per game (29.0) while Baylor ranks 22nd (30.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, TCU is 2-2 ATS with 3 overs and 1 under.
Baylor is 1-1 ATS with 1 over and 1 under over their last five games.
The Horned Frogs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.8, down from 13.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bears have scored an average of 91.0 points per game (9.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 74.6 points per game (7.6 above their season average).
