A huge BIG-12 Conference match-up begins when the (15) TCU Horned Frogs rumble with the (7) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium. The game is slated to begin on Saturday, September 23rd at 3:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on the ESPN Network for your viewing pleasure. Coming into this contest, the Cowboys are -14 point favorites and the game’s total 71.
The TCU Horned Frogs are coming off a 56-36 win over the SMU Mustangs at home. The Horned Frog offense put up some impressive numbers collecting over 600 yards of total offense. More importantly, they were balanced throughout. TCU ran the ball for 254 yards and passed it for 368.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are off a 59-21 rout of the Pitt Panthers on the road. Once again, Heisman canidate Mason Rudolph looked spectacular, passing for just under 500 yards and five scores. Last year, Oklahoma State went into to TCU and handled them very easily as they won the game 31-6.
(15) TCU Horned Frogs (3-0)
At this point, the TCU offense looks like it’s miles ahead of their defense. In all, the Horned Frogs rank 7th in the country scoring just under 50 points per game. Quarterback Kenny Hill has been solid, passing for eight scores with two picks on 737 yards passing. Hill is more of a pocket passer so he isn’t a quality threat when flushed out of the pocket.
The running game has also been productive in the first three weeks. They rush for 239 yards per game which is good for 29th in the country. Two tail backs lead the charge for TCU. Darius Anderson and Kyle Hicks have combined for almost 400 yards and four scores. Anderson leads the team with a 6.2 yards per carry average and three touchdowns.
Kenny Hill isn’t shy about who to distribute the ball to. Five wide receivers have caught at least six passes and eight others have caught at least one touchdown. KaVontae Turpin leads this unit with 12 catches and Desmon White has a team-high 126 yards. The most important factor is they keep their team balanced.
Last week that defense really struggled against the SMU Mustangs as they allowed 36 points one on 463 yards of total offense, including 363 through the air. They will have to be far better than that in this one if they hope to hogtie the high-powered Oklahoma State offense. Overall, they have seven players back on that side of the ball and have the top rated linebacking in the league.
(7) Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0)
All the talk in the BIG-12 is about how good Oklahoma is and with good reason, especially after crushing Ohio State on the road. Well, don’t discount the Oklahoma State Cowboys as they are a very good team, with perhaps the best offense in the nation.
Spearheading the charge is quarterback Mason Rudolph. So far this season, the rifleman has thrown the ball for almost 1,200 yards with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. The accurate passer will cause the Horned Frogs secondary fits if they dont find away to get some pressure up front.
Another reason that Mason Rudolph is so effective is that he has a running game to keep opposing defenses honest. Justice Hill has complimented the passing game nicely by running for 250 yards and three scores. J.D. King also can be deadly, carrying the ball for almost 200 yards with a 6.2 yards per carry average.
When you talk about the receiving corp in Stillwater, one name stands out above the rest. Wide receiver James Washington is electrifying and is off to a great start in 2017. All totaled, he has reeled in a team-high 367 yards receiving on 13 catches with three trips to the end zone.
His partner in crime Marcell Ateman isn’t far behind. Ateman has the same amount of catches with another 235 yards and three end zone appearances. These two are probably the best one-two punch at the wide out spot in the country.
A nice surprise for the Cowboys in 2017 is the play of their defense. Once again, they played well in their victory on the road at Pittsburgh. They held the Panthers to just 103 yards on the ground and 391 yards overall. They will be tested a bit more in this one against a very good TCU offense. This match-up might be the best game on the television for the weekend.
Prediction
As stated above, this game has the makings of a barn burner. Both offenses have had their way against their opponents so far. In fact, both are ranked in the top 20 in total yards and scoring. As a matter of fact, the Cowboys are 4th in the country, scoring an outrageous 54 points per contest.
On the other side of the ball, both defenses have done quite well for themselves. Oklahoma State performed well last week and are 34th in the nation, allowing only 17 points per game. Although they stumbled last week, TCU is no sippin’ tea. In fact, they only allow 14 points per game which is 22nd in the country.
Here lies the problem with this game’s over/under 71. First, the betting public has pushed it to that after the experts originally put it at 64. Apparently, Vegas thinks these defenses are good enough to keep this from being another Tulsa vs Toledo type game.
My instincts tend to agree. Usually, the line setters are pretty accurate and that’s why picking the totals and spreads isn’t that easy. They also have given the Cowboys a -11 point spread which now is up to -13.5. So originally, they were estimating a 38-26 type of ball game. I believe they were a lot closer to nailing the TCU team total than the Cowboys.
My suggestion is that these offenses are good but these defenses might be a little underrated for the new total of 71 to hit. There’s always are these games where everyone thinks it’ll be a shoot-out but it never quite pans out to be. I believe this is one of them. Take a small risk and play the under 71.
TCU is also looking for revenge, so the -13.5 scares me a bit. Even still, I’m not going to lay my money here as I would basically be picking against the best quarterback in the country.
Trends
The Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
The Horned Frogs are 2-7 in their last nine conference games.
The Under is 6-1 in the Horned Frogs last seven road games.
The under is 6-1 in the Horned Frogs last seven conference games.
The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last eight September games.
The Over is 11-4 in the Cowboys last 15 conference games.
