The TCU Horned Frogs just lost a very tough game to the University of Oklahoma. However, they still have a lot to play for. They will put themselves in position to compete for a conference championship if they can win this week. Can they shrug off last week’s setback and regroup in a road game against a team with a coach on the hot seat?
Details
Odds: Horned Frogs -7
Date & Time: Saturday November 18, 12:00 PM ET
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Reasons To Bet On The TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs are playing one of the weaker teams in the Big 12, with a defense which is constantly among the worse units in college football. Texas Tech has not been worse on defense this season compared to 2016, but it has still been bad. Texas Tech has allowed over 40 points in a majority of the Big 12 games it has played so far this season. The Red Raiders’ offense needs to be great, not merely good, in order to withstand the weaknesses of its defense. That has not happened. Tech was held under 30 points in multiple Big 12 games this season. The Red Raiders have not found a way to be explosively productive while also being able to control the ball more and keep good opposing offenses off the field. Texas Tech loves to pass the ball so much that its style of offense makes it hard to keep its defense fresh and rested during games.
TCU has a strong defense. The Horned Frogs just got chewed up by Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma, the likely Heisman Trophy winner, but they will not face Mayfield this week. As long as the defense does not allow more than 30 points, the offense should be able to run past Texas Tech for at least 40 points and score a relatively secure victory. Texas Tech will have a very hard time matching TCU’s speed at the skill positions.
TCU, if it wins this week and then next week against a bad Baylor team, will make the Big 12 Championship Game and earn a rematch with Oklahoma. That piece of motivation will carry the Horned Frogs in this game and make a difference for them.
Reasons To Bet On The Texas Tech Red Raiders
They have a head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, who is on the hot seat, trying to save his job. That is a powerful motivating factor for a bunch of players who want their coach to be around next year and want him to succeed. Texas Tech might not be a good team, but in college football, it is constantly true that mediocre teams treat individual games as their Super Bowl. They won’t be good over the course of a full 12-game season, but on one day, they play well and hard for 60 minutes. Texas Tech can easily become that kind of team in this game, and since Kingsbury’s spread offense can be extremely potent when it is locked in – it scored more than 50 points in a win over Arizona State earlier this season – the Red Raiders have enough firepower to catch TCU if the Frogs decide to take a nap.
Outlook
We’ve seen this line move around a little bit since open. The Horned Frogs actually opened up -6 but then climbed as high as -7.5. They have since pulled back to -6.5. The total opened at 59 and has steadily eased down to 57.
The TCU defense was exposed by Oklahoma, so you can bet that TCU head coach and defensive play-caller Gary Patterson looked at a lot of film and showed his players how to better defend against a spread passing game such as the one Texas Tech will offer. TCU should play a decent defensive game, and as long as the Horned Frogs get that, they shouldn’t have problems on the other side of the ball. This is a TCU win on Saturday, probably by something in the range of 14 points.
Prediction: Horned Frogs -7
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