The No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs visit Morgantown this Saturday to face the No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers in a key Big 12 matchup of two surprising and surging teams that find themselves in the midst of a tight conference race. Kickoff is set for 3:30pm ET, and will be televised by ABC. The Horned Frogs are the favorite at (-4) with the Over/Under set at 70.
Before this season began, TCU (6-1, 3-1) and West Virginia (6-2, 4-1) were picked by many to finish in the middle or bottom of the Big 12 conference, with both teams coming off of underwhelming 2013 campaigns. The Horned Frogs were hoping to improve off of a disastrous 4-8 season that saw their starting quarterback Trevone Boykin go from quarterback to receiver, even returning punts and getting a few tackles on special teams at times.
The Mountaineers posted a 4-8 record themselves that same season, struggling on defense and getting shaky play from quarterback Clint Trickett. Many considered head coach Dana Holgerson’s job to be on the line this year.
2014 has yielded entirely different results for two once-struggling conference newcomer teams that some saw as unfit for Big 12 standards.
Trevone Boykin now finds himself in the Heisman race, but not as a receiver. His 148.6 quarterback rating is second to only one other quarterback in the conference: Clint Trickett. The two teams that were considered doormats last year have already combined to dispose of Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma, shaking up a conference race that had favored those very teams over them early on. ESPN’s College Game Day crew has taken notice, and will be setting up shop on Saturday to broadcast from ground zero in Morgantown.
A Tale of Two Quarterbacks
The amazing turnarounds for both teams can be traced directly to quarterback play.
In 2013, Boykin was struggling at quarterback and found himself being moved around different positions towards seasons end, and many pundits were understandably calling for him to remain at receiver. The arrival of co-offensive coordinators Doug Meachem and Sonny Cumbie, along with an improved offensive line, have since then set up Boykin for success.
With better schemes, better blocking, and solid resolve from dealing with all of the drama and setbacks of 2013, Boykin has had an incredible return to his original position, passing for 2,306 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Although his passing has improved dramatically, he remains dangerous on the ground as well, adding another 374 yards and three touchdowns on the year so far. Boykin has hit his stride since conference play began, highlighted by his two 400-plus yard performances against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in back-to-back game, which helped to lead his team to an explosive 124 points in the blowouts.
The Mountaineers’ Clint Trickett may not have been forced to play different positions in 2013, but he certainly knows his fair share of adversity. Originally a transfer from Florida State, last year he was part of a mediocre passing attack featuring a rotating cast of three quarterbacks that led West Virginia to a paltry 26 points per game. Trickett completed just 52.8 percent of his passes in 2013 for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. It was later revealed that he tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder in his first start against Oklahoma State, and played the rest of the season in significant pain. Trickett had surgery to repair it in the offseason, and later posted a revealing post-op photo to his Twitter account that has since been deleted.
With a healed shoulder and the added stability of being named the starter before the season, Trickett has finally been able to show what he can do when given the opportunity to be the sole leader of a team. Trickett began the season with a stellar 365-yard, zero turnover game against a stingy Alabama defense that showed the Mountaineers to be for real. He hasn’t let up since, peaking with an absurd 511 yard pasting of Maryland in the season’s third week. Trickett’s 2,763 passing yards is good enough to place him at 5th nationally. He has 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions on the year.
Resumes
West Virginia began the season 2-2, falling 33-23 to then No.2 Alabama to start, beating Towson and Maryland in succession, and falling again to then No. 4 Oklahoma 45-33. The Mountaineers have reeled off four straight since then, highlighted by a resounding 41-27 victory over conference front-runners Baylor. Clint Trickett out-dueled Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty, compiling 322 yards through the air and three touchdowns, two of which came in the deciding 4th quarter.
The much improved and overlooked Mountaineer defense held Petty to a below-standard 223 yards passing, and also kept the Bears running game in check, allowing just 95 yards.
WVU followed up that win with an adequate 34-10 road win against an Oklahoma State team on a downward spiral. The Cowboy defense managed to somehow limit the nation’s number one receiver Kevin White to just 27 yards on three catches, but their focused efforts on White allowed Mario Alford to get free and post a season-high 136 yards off of only seven receptions, which included a 79 yard touchdown catch.
TCU began the season easy enough, compiling a 3-0 record before facing their first big test against Oklahoma, whom they beat 37-33 in a close fought win at home. The win had the Horned Frogs riding high and starting to gain a lot of attention, but they blew a 21-point 4th quarter lead against Baylor the following week, losing 61-58 as their defense completely broke down late. TCU was able to get back on track the following week with a 42-9 thumping of then No.15 Oklahoma State.
Trevone Boykin accumulated 410 yards passing and three touchdowns in just three quarters of action. The Horned Frogs one-upped themselves the following week, completely humiliating Texas Tech 82-27. Believe it or not, the TCU had just an 11-point lead midway through the 2nd quarter before going on a 30-0 run. Boykin broke a school record with seven touchdown passes, while Aaron Green added 105 yards and a touchdown on the ground coming on just six carries.
The TCU defense forced four turnovers and limited the Red Raiders to 101 rushing yards. Somehow in spite of all this, TCU head coach Gary Patterson was not impressed.
“I don’t think we played well all game,” said Patterson. “We didn’t play very well and won a ball game. That hasn’t happened around here in the last two years.”
Patterson was most likely referring to his team’s first quarter defense that allowed four separate 40+ yard plays. Even so, his team’s play seems to be trending upwards as the season enters it’s final stretch.
Important Numbers
TCU is 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games, while West Virginia is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. TCU is 4-2 ATS in their last six games on the road. West Virginia is 3-2 ATS at home this season. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five for TCU. The total has gone UNDER in four out the last five games for West Virginia. TCU ranks 1st nationally in points scored with 50.4 points per game. West Virginia ranks 23rd nationally with 36.9 points per game. TCU allows an average of 21.6 points per game, while West Virginia allows an even 25 per game.
Prediction
Both teams have a reputation for prolific offenses, but TCU has the clear upper hand, averaging nearly two touchdowns more per game than the Mountaineers. The Horned Frogs might not be at 100 percent Saturday, with leading receiver Josh Doctson listed as questionable for Saturday after rolling his ankle in the Texas Tech win. Even without him, Boykin still has plenty of receivers and a solid running game to check off to when needed.
TCU’s defense has made a return to form this season as well, only faltering in the wild loss to Baylor. The Mountaineers proved that the team can still fare somewhat well despite having off days from Trickett and Kevin White, but if they come close to replicating a lackadaisical performance similar to that Oklahoma State game output, the Horned Frogs will make them pay when they have the ball on offense.
West Virginia certainly has an advantage in hosting this game, and will no doubt have a fired up riot-ready fanbase behind them, but it won’t be enough to overcome a determined and red-hot TCU team looking to make an impression on the playoff committee. Pick: TCU (-4) and the OVER of 70.
