It’s a SEC East Division showdown when the #23 Tennessee Volunteers take on the #25 Florida Gators in the Sunshine State. The contest is slated to begin on Saturday, September 16th at 3:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on CBS. For this afternoon clash, line setters have the Gators as a -5.5 point favorite and the total at 49.5 points.
The Volunteers stayed unbeaten when they knocked off Indiana State 42-7 in non-conference action Saturday. There wasn’t a lot to write home to mom about as Tennessee really wasn’t tested in any facet of the game against an under-matched club.
The Gators had their home opener against Northern Colorado postponed Saturday due to Hurricane Irma. The Gators hold a 26-20 advantage in the all-time regular season series but Tennessee snapped an 11 game losing skid in the series with a 38-28 home win last year on September 24.
(23) Tennessee Volunteers (2-0)
The Volunteers built off their overtime victory over the Yellow Jackets by rolling over Indiana State. Tennessee scored on the opening kickoff and never looked back as they jumped to a 28-0 halftime edge.
Furthermore, the Vols held a 395-215 advantage in total yards and rang up 24 first downs to Indiana State’s 13. On the flip side to their success, Tennessee turned the ball over twice while failing to create one themselves.
Heading into this match-up, the Volunteers are tied for 68th in NCAA Division I football in passing offense as they average 228 yards per game. They also are 75th in rushing by averaging 154 yards per game on the ground.
So far this season, quarterback Quinten Dormady is 33 of 55 passing for 415 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. Not to bad considering he didn’t see a whole lot of time over the last two contests. Georgia Tech owned the clock in their overtime win in week one.
Running back John Kelly is the leading ground gainer for the Tennessee. This year, he has 37 totes of the pigskin for 208 yards plus four scores. Also, Carlin Fils-Aime is a red zone threat, collecting three carries for 41 yards and two trips to pay-dirt. Both will be tested against a hungry Florida front seven.
There hasn’t been a wide out emerge for the Volunteers through the first two weeks of the season. As a result, running back John Kelly leads the team with 10 receptions for 95 yards. Wide receiver Brandon Johnson has snatched up seven balls for 64 yards and a touchdown. Slot receiver Marquez Callaway also has five grabs for 152 yards and three scores.
Defensively, the Vols numbers might be a little skewed. For one, their running stats look negatively inflated because they faced the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. As of now, they sit at 127th in the nation.
Even still, Tennessee struggled to stop the run in 2016 and are at it again in 2017. The secondary looks good on paper but again, they played run-happy Georgia Tech in Week One and nobody in Week Two. Florida will challenge them on the ground, so we will see what the front seven is about by game’s end.
(25) Florida Gators (0-1)
The Gators got to rest up for a week as Hurricane Irma led to the cancellation of several games in the state. Prior to mother natures interruption, Florida had their chances against Michigan but fell short to Wolverines in the second half. The Gators led 17-13 at halftime but were outscored 20-0 in the second frame.
More importantly, their offense put up just three points because both their touchdowns came on interception returns. Florida was out-gained 433-192 and lost the first down battle 19-9 in the contest. Also, their offense turned the ball over three times.
An ineffective Phillipe Franks was replaced by Malik Zaire in the second half. Zaire was 9 of 17 passing for 106 yards in the game. Before receiving the hook, Franks completed five of nine passes for only 75 yards. The Volunteer defense isn’t as dominant as the Wolverines, so either quarterback should get a chance at redemption.
The Gators’ rushing attack was completely stifled as Michigan held Florida to a measly 11 yards on a mind-boggling 27 carries. That stat in itself explains exactly how bad the Gators were getting pushed around in the trenches by the Wolverines.
John Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland combined for 147 yards of pass catching for the Florida air attack. Together, they totaled about ninety percent of the passing yardage before the whistle blew.
Defensively, Florida made the most of their chances against the Wolverines. Corner backs Duke Dawson and CJ Henderson each scored on interception returns. Unfortunately, your not going to win too many games when your defense is outscoring your offense.
Prediction
The Gators have their work cut out for them heading into the meat of their conference schedule. Florida better run the ball better than they did against Michigan or it’s going to be a long day in the Swamp. Also, the Gators need one of their signal-callers to step up and provide some leadership. Neither seemed to be capable of that in their opener.
The Volunteers looked decent offensively in their first two games of the season. The question is, can the Vols’ defense do their part to keep the struggling Gators’ offense off the field. If there ever was a time to catch Florida on their heels, this is it.
Apparently, Las Vegas feels that it might not matter much how well Tennessee’s defense plays because they have this total at 49.5 and the Gators as a -5.5 favorite. The thing that stands out to me here is that Florida is so offensively challenged that their defense will be expected to keep the Vols under 24 points. If so, they can snatch up a victory in a low scoring affair.
I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle in this match-up so I’m suggesting that bettors think dog in this one and take Tennessee to cover the spread. With a total so low, a close game will favor the underdog who can at least find some continuity to their offense.
Trends
The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Volunteers last 6 games overall.
The Over is 5-1 in the Volunteers last 6 road games.
The Gators are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
The Under is 4-1 in the Gators last 5 conference games.
The Under is 6-2 in the Gators last 8 games overall.
The Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
