The ATP’s tour stop in Portugal flows into the second round and so do our tennis picks. Players below the top tier are trying to find a groove with their shots, their technique, and their movement on red clay. It’s true that clay surfaces are different from one venue to the next, but the principles are the same.
On Tuesday, we saw seven matches go down and all of them ended in straight sets. Kyle Edmund got past Daniel Gimeno 6-3, 7-5, Guillermo Garcia beat Micahel Berrer 6-3, 7-6, Taro Daniel beat Steven Diez 7-6, 6-1, Paul-Henri Mathieu beat Gastao Elias 6-3, 6-4 and Paolo Lorenzi topped Elias Ymer 7-6, 6-3. The biggest surprise of the day has to be that Benjamin Becker was already bounced in the tournament. He had a matchup against Rogerio Dutra Silva and lost in straight sets. The German, who is ranked 92nd in the world, has had a fairly rouhg season so far with just five wins in 12 matches. Clay has proven to be his biggest weakness in terms of surfaces, though, as he is now just 11-30 on the red clay.
So looking forward to Wednesday, will any player generate momentum this week which carries into the next one in Madrid?
Borna Coric vs. Rogerio Dutra Silva
Betting Odds: Coric -370
There is always some element of risk – not just in sports betting at large, but in betting on a late teenager to win a professional competition. Borna Coric got dusted off by Federico Delbonis in the Marrakech final. He’s posted some big wins in his career over top-five players, but he is learning that life on the tour is a grind and demands a steady consistency which he hasn’t been able to find, and probably isn’t going to find for a while. It’s just not that easy to zoom to the top of the charts without meeting some resistance. That said, will Coric encounter turbulence in this specific matchup against Dutra Silva? This is not the most threatening opponent for Coric. The number six seed has the tools of a next-level player, but youth will get in the way at times. The operative question here is if one expects Coric to struggle enough to keep Dutra Silva in the hunt. Given that this is an early-round matchup at a tournament, Coric probably won’t be fatigued enough to let down his guard for an overly long period of time. If he ever does struggle in this match, he should be able to pull himself together before it’s too late and win. Take Coric with your tennis picks.
Pick: Coric in straight sets
Inigo Cervantes vs. Nick Kyrgios
Betting Odds: Kyrgios -385
This should be a straightforward match for Kyrgios, who made the final of this tournament a year ago before losing to Richard Gasquet. Kyrgios is not a natural clay-court player, but he is a natural tennis player, with a big game and a keen sense of the need to put pressure on his opponents. Cervantes is a clay specialist, but not a hugely formidable one. He will very likely try to wait out Kyrgios, hoping for errors and getting as many balls back as possible by playing defense. If he makes Kyrgios hit enough shots, he hopes Kyrgios will misfire often. That’s a reasonable strategy, but it’s hard to win that way, even on slower clay. Kyrgios should be able to find ways to end points on his terms, from winning positions. Don’t try to bet the upset here. Take Kyrgios with your tennis picks.
Pick: Kyrgios in straight sets
Benoit Paire vs. Kyle Edmund
Betting Odds: Paire -208
This is a matchup in which it should be one-way traffic. Paire outplayed Andy Murray for most of his match in Monte Carlo, but he didn’t handle pressure well at the ends of sets and lost in three. Edmund, though, isn’t anywhere close to where Murray is as an athlete and as a tennis tactician. His forehand is also not strong enough to expose Paire’s forehand. The Frenchman should be able to cruise in this one. Take Paire with your tennis picks in this spot.
Pick: Paire in straight sets
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