The ATP’s tour stop in Portugal stays in the second round and so do our tennis picks. We had a productive day with our tennis picks on Wednesday as we went 3-0. We cashed with Nick Kyrgios, who needed to get to seven games in each set but still won in straights. We cashed with Benoit Paire, who lost the first set to Kyle Edmund but bounced back with back-to-back wins in the second and third sets. Then we also won with Borna Coric, who had an up-and-down match with Rogerio Dutra Silva. Coric won the first set, lost the second set, and then rebounded to win the third set.
On Thursday, the remainder of the round will whittle down the field and give us an idea of which players have the clearest path to the title. There’s always a tension between getting through the early rounds and then playing in the later rounds. This is the hinge point, which is why it should be very revealing.
Nicolas Almagro vs. Joao Sousa
Betting Odds: Almagro -204
There is an odd set of circumstances here, in that Almagro is historically the much better player, with a number of Grand Slam quarterfinals and round of 16s to his credit. Sousa has not come close to Almagro’s career accomplishments. However, Almagro is an older player who – after a number of injuries – is just not as potent as he used to be. He has a great backhand, but if he can’t get as much from his serve and his forehand, he’s just not going to be able to do as much damage. Sousa is the seeded player here (number four), and Almagro is the unseeded player. What might be the wild card here is that Sousa is Portuguese, so this is his home-nation tournament. He could get very nervous, but if he plays within himself, he can probably outlast Almagro in a long match. Take him with your tennis picks even though he’s a dog.
Pick: Sousa in three sets
Gilles Simon vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
Betting Odds: Simon -345
This is a matchup of two French players, and when you see two players from the same nation on opposite sides of the net, it’s a little easier to compare them, because a lot of observers can identify which players of a given nationality have done more (or less) with their careers. Simon is the player who has done a lot more, while Mathieu (though very talented) has spent most of his career failing to get out of the early rounds of tournaments. Mathieu doesn’t have Simon’s court sense, court coverage, mental toughness, or shot consistency. He’s a little too error-prone, whereas Simon is exactly the kind of player who is able to wait out an opponent and force the first error in a rally instead of making that error himself. Simon should be able to frustrate Mathieu in general, and on clay, which rewards the defensive game Simon plays, it should be even easier for “Gillou” to beat Mathieu.
Pick: Simon in straight sets
Leonardo Mayer vs. Paolo Lorenzi
Betting Odds: Mayer -200
This is an intriguing match in light of the fact that Lorenzi defeated his better-known and more accomplished countryman, Fabio Fognini, in the Monte Carlo Masters 1000 tournament. Lorenzi doesn’t deserve to be taken for granted, dismissed as someone who has no real chance in this match against the seventh-seeded Mayer. It’s also true that Mayer, who was once in the top 25, has struggled to maintain his place in men’s tennis over the past year. Mayer did a lot of work to climb up the rankings, but he might have used up a lot of energy in that forward push. The past year doesn’t do much to dissuade people from agreeing with that view.
Nevertheless, Lorenzi has existed on a much lower plane throughout his career, relative to Mayer. This still feels like a match in which a lot has to go wrong for Mayer to lose. Go with the Argentine with your tennis picks.
Pick: Mayer in straight sets
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