The ATP’s Indian Wells tournament catches its breath and then advances into the fourth round, so it’s an important time for our tennis picks. The rankings points on offer are increasing and so is the money, so players know that the stakes are high. Players can make bigger jumps up the board and secure much larger paychecks by winning these matches on Wednesday. Here are our tennis picks for Wednesday.
David Goffin vs. Stan Wawrinka
Betting Odds: Wawrinka -370
There is no denying that Stan Wawrinka has struggled at Indian Wells over the years. He has not been able to win this tournament, nor has he been able to get to the finals or semifinals. The quarterfinals have been his ceiling in Southern California. He’s well aware of it. One thing to mention about Wawrinka’s more recent struggles in Indian Wells, compared to an earlier point in his career, is that Kevin Anderson was able to beat him multiple times in Indian Wells. Since Anderson has, in recent years, become a better player who has taken some forward strides in his game, Wawrinka’s failures in Indian Wells haven’t been entirely attributable to his own shortcomings. Opponents have played well against him, and that should be acknowledged.
Wawrinka is still an unsteady player, someone who goes up and down without a lot of warning or notice. In that regard, he is a nightmare for prospective tennis bettors. However, compared to a guy like Anderson, David Goffin isn’t nearly as threatening. His serve is nowhere close to Anderson’s in terms of being able to win points easily. He can’t play an attacking game or a net-based game nearly as well as Anderson. He has to live from the baseline, and that’s very much to Wawrinka’s liking. This is just a really good matchup for Wawrinka, who should win comfortably, so take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Wawrinka in straight sets
Tomas Berdych vs. Milos Raonic
Betting Odds: Raonic -185
This should be a match with very few points over eight strokes. Berdych and Raonic both have huge serves. They love to tee off on the forehand side and end points sooner rather than later. Berdych was the better player and the better exemplar of this basic and brutal style of tennis for a long time. Now, that doesn’t seem to be as clear. Raonic, not Berdych, made his way to the semifinals of the Australian Open this past January. Raonic was playing the more thoughtful tennis, with some small but noticeable additions to his game and a little more court coverage than we had seen in previous years. Raonic has retooled his game to the point that the same basic performance from Berdych (perhaps one from 2015) might not get the job done this time. Raonic deserves the benefit of the doubt here; Berdych no longer does. Take Raonic with your tennis picks.
Pick: Raonic in three sets
Gael Monfils vs. Federico Delbonis
Betting Odds: Monfils -455
This is a matchup in which the reality of Delbonis playing a match two days after upsetting Andy Murray will be hard for the challenger from South America. It’s one thing to upset a known player on one day. It’s often so much harder to come back and beat another seeded player in the next match. Monfils should be able to win here, unless Delbonis brings out his very best again. That’s unlikely as we’re talking about a player who really perform at that level consistently. For example, he’s just 4-10 lifetime in Grand Slam matches. He’s a player that is 65-74 lifetime in matches overall. He’s 2-5 against the Top 10 players in the world and most importantly, the hard surface is his worst of any. He is 55-42 on clay but he’s 0-4 on grass and is just 10-28 on the hard courts. Monfils is definitely not a top 10 player but he’s still very good and should take advantage of a player who looks like he’s coming off a fluky win. Take Monfils with your tennis picks.
Pick: Monfils in straight sets
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