The ATP’s Madrid tournament proceeds into the quarterfinals and so do our tennis picks. We had a productive day on the courts on Thursday as we won all three of our selections. That included Tomas Berdych over David Ferrer, Nick Kyrgios over Pablo Cuevas and Richard Gasquet over Kei Nishikori.
The favorites, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, are having no difficulty slashing through each successive opponent. Will they run into trouble on Friday or keep the momentum which has them on track to meet in what would be a mouthwatering championship match on Sunday?
Novak Djokovic vs. Milos Raonic
Betting Odds: Djokovic -833
There is a puncher’s chance that Raonic, with his huge serve and his improved movement relative to 2015 and previous years, could play well enough to take this match into a pair of tiebreakers and win them. It is certainly realistic that Raonic could win this match by a score of 7-6, 7-6. That’s always a possibility when he takes the court. He very nearly reached the final of the Australian Open this year with his power game and a noticeably improved level of court coverage. However, Novak Djokovic – who got a needed rest when he lost early in Monte Carlo – looks fit and fresh and ready to do more damage in this tournament. Djokovic clearly remains the best player in the world. Nadal might give him a run at this tournament, but Djokovic has been a cut above the rest of men’s tennis for a year and a half. Only once in a while does he fail to win a tournament, and when he does fall short, he almost always makes the final. Djokovic lost before the final of Monte Carlo. That was the first time since October of 2014 that Djokovic failed to make the final of a Masters 1000 tournament or a Grand Slam tournament. He had been that automatic since then. Expect Djokovic, who has the best return of serve in men’s tennis, to break Raonic at least once, and maybe twice. He should win a match with a score of 7-6, 6-4. Take Djoker with your tennis picks.
Pick: Djokovic in straight sets
Nick Kyrgios vs. Kei Nishikori
Betting Odds: Nishikori -222
This should be a very fund match to watch. What makes it better is that it is a rematch of a Masters 1000 contest earlier this year. In Miami, just over a month ago, these two men met in the semifinals on a hardcourt surface. Nishikori was the more consistent player, and he managed to move into the finals, where he lost against Djokovic. Here, in the quarterfinals, the winner is once again likely to get Djokovic, but first things first. These players have to get past each other. Kyrgios certainly has a chance. He’s getting better and better as time goes along. He seems likely to be a contender for top titles in a few more years, once he gets more experience. However, right now, Nishikori – a finalist in Barcelona and the runner-up at this event two years ago – is very comfortable on clay. It’s hard to bet against Nishikori here, so take him with your tennis picks.
Pick: Nishikori in three sets
Rafael Nadal vs. Joao Sousa
Betting Odds: Nadal -3333
This is a matchup in which Sousa is the beneficiary of Roger Federer’s pullout from the tournament before it began. Sousa has made the most of his opportunity, but it remains that he has not faced as tough a field of players as he might have expected to. Rafa should be able to clean him up and send him packing in straight sets.
Obviously, it’s a sizable chunk of juice to be laying in this spot but there are only four matchups on the board and we don’t see any value either way in the Andy Murray-Tomas Berdych showdown. If you’re going to bet betting this with your tennis picks, you might want to parlay Nadal with some of your other moneyline plays or you might want to lay the sets spread here instead of laying this huge chunk of change.
Pick: Nadal in straight sets
