The ATP’s Nice Open tournament moves along this week with more opening-round play and so do our tennis picks. Looking back to Monday, it was a fairly boring day for action at the Geneva Open as all of the matchups ended in straight sets. That wasn’t the case in Nice where all but two of the matches went the distance. The two quick ones were Diego Schwartzman, who surprised a number of people when he beat Fernando Verdasco, and Taylor Fritz, who needed just two sets to dispose of Ilya Marchenko. Alex Zverev managed to move on, as did Fabio Fognini, Guido Pella and Joao Sousa.
Looking forward to Tuesday, the players who reach the semifinals and final of this tournament won’t have too much turnaround time before the French Open, but this is not far away from Paris. Players want to ensure that their investments of time this week lead to at least three matches. Otherwise, no player can really say that he’s become adequately prepared for Roland Garros.
Joao Sousa vs. Victor Estrella Burgos
There is a difference in rankings for these players, because Sousa is the No. 5 seed in this tournament while Estrella Burgos is unseeded and has not done much this season. Estrella Burgos is one of the older professionals on tour. He is trying to extract what’s left of his career and make every last moment on the tour worthwhile. Sousa is a player who gets a top-five seed at the ATP 250 level tournaments such as this one. He qualifies for Masters 1000 tournaments and has generally moved upward in the rankings structure over the past few years. If you had to choose between these two players, Sousa is the more credentialed player, but also younger, to the point that he should be fresh enough to dictate the shape of the rallies and force Estrella Burgos, the older player, to run a lot during the match and cover the court. Estrella Burgos needs Sousa to play well below his average, and if that doesn’t happen, Sousa is going to win. The betting calculus of this situation seems clear, so take Sousa with your tennis picks.
Pick: Sousa in straight sets
Benoit Paire vs. Adrian Mannarino
This should be an unpredictable match, or at least, it has the potential to become as much. Sousa versus Estrella Burgos feels like a straightforward match in which a pick for one player is safe. This is a match in which a pick for one player seems more likely than the other pick, but even with that being the case, it’s a lot easier to see the underdog winning. Mannarino is the underdog here, but he has a chance just because Paire is an erratic player. Paire has one of the best backhands on the tour, but his forehand is horrible. He can go off the boil in a match, and he can do so at the drop of a hat. He is not the kind of player with whom a bettor should feel entirely comfortable. Yet, he is more skilled than Mannarino, and what’s more is that since Mannarino is a lefty whose forehand goes crosscourt into the Paire backhand, it’s a tough matchup for Mannarino, who must hit his forehand down the line. Ultimately, Paire is the better choice for your tennis picks in this spot.
Pick: Paire in straight sets
Diego Schwartzman vs. Kevin Anderson
This is a matchup in which it’s very hard to determine a winner. Anderson is the better player, but he has been injured for a lot of this season and therefore hasn’t been able to develop any momentum. He’s fairly rusty and clay is not always the most forgiving of surfaces. Schwartzman won the ATP tournament in Istanbul a few weeks ago, but he is a lesser known name overall. You can go either way here, but Anderson inspires so little confidence in the wake of his injuries. Go with Schwartzman for your tennis picks.
Pick: Schwartzman in three sets
