The ATP’s Internazionali BNL d-Italia tournament now flows into the second round in a few cases, but it’s still in the first round for other players competing on Tuesday. Our tennis picks will follow suit,. On Monday, we saw some interesting results where mostly everything played out by the book. Richard Gasquet earned a straight sets win over Julien Benneteau, Jack Sock needed three sets to dispose of Guido Pella, Nick Kyrgios stayed hot and beat Salvatore Caruso in straight sets, Milos Raonic had a little bit of trouble with Marco Cecchinato but eventually triumphed in three sets, Andrea Seppi beat Vasek Pospisil in straight sets, Guillermo Garcia beat Fabio Fognini in straight sets, Ernests Gulbis beat Ivo Karlovic in three sets and Alexander Zverev beat Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets. The biggest surprise of the day was the fact that Gael Monfils won’t be moving on to the next round. Monfils had a tough opening matchup against Thomaz Bellucci and he failed to even win a single set, although the second set needed a tiebreaker to find a resolution.
On Wednesday, players are trying to make a final push before the French Open. In almost all cases, they’re certain to get direct entry into the French Open, but some players are fighting for a seed (top 32), and others for more specific positioning.
Stan Wawrinka vs. Benoit Paire
There is perhaps no matchup on the ATP Tour more friendly than this one. Wawrinka and Paire don’t merely get along cordially. They are best friends on tour, practicing and laughing together throughout the season when they’re both at the same event. Paire plays some of the lower-end tournaments (250s and 500s) that Wawrinka skips, but when they’re at a Masters event or a Grand Slam tournament, they yuk it up and enjoy a good time together. Playing against a friend is a unique challenge, and so you’re likely to see some nerves in this match. Wawrinka’s season has stalled. The Swiss will soon defend his French Open championship, but he hasn’t done much of anything lately. He’ll want to get a few matches under his belt in Rome so that he’s not cold and rusty for Paris. That as much as anything else should help him against Paire. It is also true that Paire has played more matches over the past few months, so that added mileage could also leave the Frenchman tired for this match, while Wawrinka has more energy. Take Wawrinka with your tennis picks as he should win when it’s all said and done.
Pick: Wawrinka in straight sets
Lucas Pouille vs. Ernests Gulbis
This should be a very close and tough match. Pouille is a lucky loser who benefited from a pre-tournament pullout from another player, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Not only did he get into the main draw when Tsonga went out; Pouille took the place of a top-eight seed, meaning that he not only entered the main draw but entered Tsonga’s second-round slot. Pouille got a bye in the first round, which makes him a lot of extra money. Now Pouille gets a very beatable opponent. Ernests Gulbis hasn’t even won as many as five main-draw matches this year. “Slump” is a charitable word to describe the totality of Gulbis’ problems on tour this season. Gulbis does get hot every once in a while. He made a run in Canada last summer, and he made the French Open semifinals two years ago, but those brief moments of quality just don’t last. Pouille is the better bet in this situation.
Pick: Pouille in three sets
Roberto Bautista-Agut vs. Paolo Lorenzi
This is a matchup in which Bautista-Agut, who lost to Novak Djokovic last week in Madrid after picking up a couple of wins, clearly enjoys the upper hand. Bautista-Agut is a more skilled player with court coverage which is strong enough to prevent Lorenzi from getting him off balance. Lorenzi is playing in front of his Italian fans, and that might help him a little bit, but not enough to change the outcome of the match. Take Bautista-Agut.
Pick: Bautista-Agut in straight sets
