Wimbledon arrives at its two singles championship matches this weekend and so do our tennis picks. The women’s final on Saturday followed by the men’s final on Sunday. Serena Williams plays for her 22nd Grand Slam title, which would tie Steffi Graf. Once again, Germany’s Angelique Kerber will try to keep Graf ahead of Williams on the all-time list. For the men, Andy Murray will play his 11th Grand Slam final, but for the first time, he will be the higher-seeded player. Also for the first time, he will play someone other than Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer. What will happen in these two intriguing matches? Here are our tennis picks for the final two matches.
Women’s Final:
Serena Williams vs. Angelique Kerber
This is a rematch of the 2016 Australian Open final, a match in which Kerber won in three sets. In that match, Serena didn’t serve her best, which gave Kerber an opening in the match. Serena also didn’t make very solid tactical decisions, approaching the net when not in a commanding position. Yet, for all the things Serena didn’t do as well as she could have, Kerber played an excellent match. She played her trademark defense, which enables her to dig out of extreme defensive positions by hitting shots with an angle and depth that either reset the point or, even better, catch opponents off guard. Kerber is the best defensive player in women’s tennis, so in that regard, she is the perfect foil for Serena’s offense, the player who is best equipped to stand up to Serena’s ruthless groundstrokes.
The real surprise of the Australian Open final was simply that Kerber kept her composure so well. This was Kerber’s first Grand Slam final. She was new to the whole environment, but she played as though she had experienced it many times over the years. She is in her late 20s, so her years on tour certainly helped her. Nevertheless, she played with few nerves on such an important occasion.
This time, Kerber’s nerves shouldn’t be questioned at all. The pressure of this match is on Serena. She needs to react better than she did in Melbourne. Will she? First, she’s healthy. Second, she played a very short semifinal against Elena Vesnina. She did play doubles with Venus Williams on Friday, which gave her net game some work. She should not be overly tired heading into this match.
Serena has tried to win title No. 22 for nearly a year. She will face pressure, but she should be ready to play well enough to win. Take Serena with your tennis pick in a very good, close match.
Pick: Serena in three sets
Men’s Final:
Milos Raonic vs. Andy Murray
There is a chance Raonic can win, and it’s by holding serve and being willing to play – and win – tiebreakers on Sunday. Raonic, after playing a five-set semifinal against Roger Federer, is not likely to win long rallies or an overly-long match. He won’t win a five-setter, so what he has to do is play very short points. He needs to win service points with an ace or a service winner or a clean-up shot right after his serve. He needs to play points no longer than five shots, ideally three. He frankly needs to tank some Murray return games, not trying to use up too much energy. If he gets ahead in a Murray service game – love-15 or 15-30 – he can try to patiently construct points, especially if he gets a second serve from Murray. However, if he falls behind 30-0 and is not down a break, he should swing away, take big risks, and make lots of errors so that points stay short. If Raonic can play very short points – as a server and a returner – and then win a pair of tiebreakers – he can win a four-set match without breaking Murray’s serve. This isn’t done often at Wimbledon, but it has been done and it can be done. Michael Stich knocked out defending champion Stefan Edberg in the 1991 semifinals precisely by doing this. Raonic, with his serve and net game, has a chance.
Yet, this is a low-margin path to victory. Murray is finally playing a Grand Slam final without Djokovic or Federer in front of him. This is the kind of opportunity he’s been waiting his whole life for. Don’t expect him to waste it. Take Murray with your tennis picks in this spot.
Pick: Murray in four sets
