The BNP Paribas Open tennis tournament from Indian Wells stays with second-round matches on Saturday and so do our tennis picks. This is the final batch of matches for the WTA in which some players are playing their first match of the tournament, coming off first-round byes against the lower-ranked members of the 96-player field. It’s been a mostly by-the-book tournament so far with few wild surprises. Let’s take a closer look at the card and see what happens on Saturday:
Sloane Stephens vs. Eugenie Bouchard
Betting Odds: Stephens -189
This is a match which is not a blockbuster in terms of title contenders or players who have accomplished a lot in tennis, but it’s a big deal because it showcases the future of women’s tennis, with two young and driven players who are trying to make their way to the top. Bouchard made the 2014 Wimbledon final but then suffered through a brutal 2015 and then suffered a concussion last September at the U.S. Open, as the result of an off-court fall which has since gotten her into legal entanglements with the United States Tennis Association. After a lot of time to rest and refresh, Bouchard seems to be noticeably better than she was for most of 2015, but she’s not yet all the way there. Beating someone such as Stephens would be an indication that she’s ready to become a player who goes deep into the biggest tournaments on the calendar. Stephens has won her first two titles over the past eight months. She is beginning to learn how to compete on the tour. She has taken some small steps forward. However, when she does win a tournament, she often takes one step backward. She remains inconsistent and an enigma to fans and broadcasters.
This is an extremely hard match to handicap, because both players exist in uncertain periods of their careers. They’ll both probably get better over time, but in this match, their form is hard to gauge. Bouchard has done a little more in February, but Stephens had this match circled when the tournament started. Stephens probably deserves a very small edge.
Pick: Stephens in three sets
Ana Ivanovic vs. Camila Giorgi
Betting Odds: Ivanovic -278
This is a matchup which is fragile because you have a mentally weak player in Ivanovic going up against an erratic hitter in Giorgi. Ivanovic remains an inconsistent player who just can’t string together long period of quality tennis. She will be really good on one or two days, but she doesn’t consolidate momentum once she develops it. Giorgi is a player who hits the ball really big at all times. She tries to end points as soon as possible, with a big game. That might seem like a really good thing, but the problem is that Giorgi doesn’t know when to play patiently and set up points. This feels like a toss-up, but if Ivanovic can’t settle into the match, Giorgi could play first-strike tennis and succeed. Give Giorgi a small edge and take here with your tennis picks. We’re trying to cash with the underdog in this one.
Pick: Giorgi in three sets
Christina McHale vs. Garbine Muguruza
Betting Odds: Muguruza -385
This is a match which, based on form and results from 2016, feels very even. Muguruza has largely disappointed this season. She has been flat in moments when she was expected to display the full range of her skills. Muguruza is ranked in the top 10, but a lot of that was created by her Wimbledon runner-up showing. Those points will drop off in the summer if she doesn’t defend them. She knows she has to begin to earn fresh rankings points in Indian Wells and put an end to her listless play. The past two months say this is a tight three-setter, but if Muguruza wakes up, she should outhit McHale, who does not generate enough power from the ground. Take Muguruza with your tennis picks in this spot.
Pick: Muguruza in straight sets
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