The mile and a half Belmont Stakes is referred to as the Test of Champions but each of the stops on the Triple Crown Trail brings a unique perspective for bettors to evaluate.
As for the sophomore set, the Kentucky Derby is the most important race in America, even though the money is not on the line as it is on Breeders’ Cup Day.
Even the most casual of racing fan has a feel for the Kentucky Derby. As for the horses, they are trying to do something at the tender age of not fully three in most cases of going a mile and a quarter for the first time.
The hype going to the Kentucky Derby is like no other, and there is kind of a let down after the ceremony, but the next stop in Baltimore has its very own intricacies. And by the time they get to run in the Test of Champions in the Belmont Stakes, the talent picture is better focused.
The runners that come back in the Preakness after running in the Kentucky Derby have to be super fit to rebound in two weeks off the toughest test of their young lives. They have to ship north and have to negotiate a shorter trip, in a new climate with new surroundings, and under varying circumstances.
It was not a perfect scenario for Always Dreaming this year in the Preakness. He got a bit of a break in the Derby when the legitimate speed Conquest Mo Money didn’t fire but still could not take advantage.
By the time the strong get to New York for the Belmont Stakes, this year that will be on June 10, it becomes evident that only the fittest survive.
One thing fans have to understand is that these horses are not machines. There is blood running through those veins and not just octane. And just like when something freaky happens on the track, like a horse that breaks down and causes a spill, racing itself has a mental as well as physical response.
The ‘not machines’ angle has taken Gunnevera out of the Test of Champions conversation. He bled for the first time in his career in the Preakness and his trainer Antonio Sano will put him on the shelf. If the runner thrives during the time off, he should surface in the summer at Saratoga.
Tradition is steep when talking the Belmont Stakes and the Test of Champions. The filly Ruthless won the first running in 1867 at Jerome Park. Count Fleet completed his Triple Crown quest taking the 1943 edition winning by 25 lengths. It was the largest margin of victory until Secretariat set the record of 2:24 winning off by 31 lengths in 1973.
What makes the 1973 timing so incredible is that it was a full 2 seconds faster than the next fastest of 2:26 set by New York’s own Easy Goer in 1989 and matched by A.P. Indy in 1992. Risen Star and Point Given each won the Belmont in 2:26 2/5 and the great Affirmed completed his Triple Crown task in 2:26 4/5.
The horses and the humans can be intimidated a bit by the Belmont Stakes. The track itself is unique in that it is a mile and a half, much longer than the normal track in America.
The mile and a half distance is seldom run in this country. You will see grass marathoners at times, especially in the late summer and fall, but dirt marathoners are few and far between.
One of the reasons runners are not adept at deal with the distance of the Test of Champions is because it takes foundation and experience to win these races.
The way the American racing scene is constructed the emphasis is on speed. Juvenile races are shuffled about as early as March and many of those runners are not even fully two years old.
The reason baby races are coveted is because that is where the money is every single year. The juvenile races are where the future stars in the game are learning their trade.
To be frank, very few juveniles that win these very early races go on to become stars. Runners that are pumped up to run four and a half or five furlongs are extremely unlikely to excel in routes. This is especially true when talking about the Test of Champions.
History can help us sometimes when thinking about the Belmont Stakes.
The last Preakness Stakes winner to win the Test of Champions was American Pharoah in 2015. He was the only Preakness winner to win the Belmont Stakes in the last eleven years.
Coming from far back is not the best Belmont Stakes style. Jazil came from over ten lengths back in 2006 but he was the first to do that for some time until Creator came from left field to win the 2016 Belmont Stakes.
Playing the superfecta has been a gold mine in the Belmont Stakes for the most part. Since 2000 the superfecta in the Belmont has been very generous. Last year when Creator won the Belmont at 16-1, he was followed home by 8-1 Destin, 12-1 Lani and 17-1 Governor Malibu. The $2 superfecta paid nearly $28,000.
Just because a horse has been bet through the roof has not made him a Belmont Stakes cinch. Eight of the last 10 odds-on favorites to compete in the Belmont have lost.
Racing in the Kentucky Derby, skipping the Preakness and racing in the Belmont Stakes has been a solid ploy. Since 2000, eight runners with those credentials won the Belmont Stakes including the 2016 winner Creator.
Granted, there is a long way to go before the last race in this year’s Triple Crown but bettors need to pay attention. Try to get a good grasp of how the Belmont Stakes runners have made the trip to New York and if there are some runners that have had success at the New York venue.
Pedigree is also important when evaluating the Test of Champions. Though it is a positive to have some semblance of positional speed, a runner must have the solid core and the needed grit to keep to the task at this demanding distance.
At this point, with a Triple Crown winner impossible, don’t be shocked if another new player raises his head on Belmont Stakes Day.
