The Green Bay Packers snapped a four-game winless skid when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27-13 on Monday Night Football last week. Now they return home with their season on the line once again versus the Houston Texans this week. The Packers need a win to get back to .500 and positions themselves to contend for a playoff spot down the final stretch.
As for the Texans, they’ve been a fading commodity. They’ve lost two straight and quarterback Brock Osweiler has been terrible in the process. However, they’re the leader in the AFC South and are in prime playoff position. They need this game just as much as the Packers do, but can they go on the road – where they’ve struggled – and earn the win?
Moneyline: Green Bay -260
Handicap/Spread Odds: GB -6
Total O/U: 46.5
Recent Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 10/14/12 | GB 42 – HOU 24 | GB 4 | O 46.5 |
| 12/07/08 | HOU 24 – GB 21 | HOU 7 | U 47.5 |
| 11/21/04 | GB 16 – HOU 13 | HOU 3.5 | U 50.5 |
On The Texans Side of the Ball (6-5 Record, 5-5-1 ATS)
The Texans didn’t do themselves any favors in an ugly 21-13 loss to the San Diego Chargers last week in which they continues to turn the ball over. Brock Osweiler looked absolutely awful as he finished the game with 246 passing yards and three interceptions. Osweiler now has 13 picks compared to 12 touchdowns on the season and because of him Houston owns the second-worst pass offense in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Texans run game wasn’t much better against San Diego as Lamar Miller had just 57 rushing yards and lost a fumble on a crucial drive that pretty much sealed their fate. Houston’s defense looks good on paper right now but with the third-fewest turnovers forced in the NFL they haven’t been good enough to bail out their sub-par offense of late.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | SD | L 13-21 | L 2.5 | U 45.5 |
| 11/21/16 | @OAK | L 20-27 | L 6.5 | O 45.5 |
| 11/13/16 | @ JAC | W 24-21 | W 3 | O 42 |
| 10/30/16 | DET | W 20-13 | W -1 | U 46.5 |
| 10/24/16 | @ DEN | L 9-27 | L 8.5 | U 40 |
On The Packers Side of the Ball (5-6 Record, 5-5-1 ATS)
Aaron Rodgers completed 30-of-39 passes for 313 yards and a pair of touchdowns in last week’s win over the Eagles. Rodgers’ 17 touchdown passes since Week 8 are the most in the NFL over that span and he will be looking to feast on the Houston defense at home in this one. Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are beginning to turn things around and if they can maintain a higher level of consistency then they will be difficult to stop.
Meanwhile, the Packers defense held its own against the Eagles by giving up just 13 points on the road on Monday Night Football. The Green Bay coaching staff will take a close look at the game tape from Sunday’s Houston loss and make sure they try to do some of the same things to force Osweiler into making mistakes. The Packers should also have an advantage playing at home in this contest against a Texans’ team that has been terrible on the road this season. They are just 1-4 in road games so far
Last 5 Results:
| 11/28/16 | @ PHI | W 27-13 | W 4 | U 47 |
| 11/20/16 | @ WAS | W 24-42 | L 3 | O 48 |
| 11/13/16 | @ TEN | L 25-47 | L -3 | O 48.5 |
| 11/06/16 | IND | L 26-31 | L -7.5 | O 52 |
| 10/30/16 | @ ATL | L 32-33 | W 3 | O 51 |
Quick Analysis
Green Bay has won seven of its last nine games played in the month of December and has posted a 6-3 record against the spread over that span. Factor in that that the Texans are just 1-5 on the road this season both straight up and against the spread and on paper this looks like a matchup that could turn ugly.
Prediction
The Packers kept their season alive with a big win in Philadelphia and will play three of their final five games at home with a chance to finish strong and challenge for a playoff spot. A home date with the Seattle Seahawks looms in Week 14 but the key for Green Bay will remain focused on taking it one game at a time.
The bottom line in this spot is the Texans offense probably won’t be able to keep up. Osweiler has been a train wreck throughout most of the season, so it’s hard to trust him here in a showdown with Aaron Rodgers. The Texans are a warm-weather, indoor team that now has to go on the road and play outdoors in cold weather. It’s not a good spot for them.
Pick: GB -6
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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