The No.3-seeded Texas A&M Aggies (26-8) play the No.14-seeded Green Bay Phoenix (19-12) in the first round of the NCAA tournament at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game gets underway at 7:20 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 18 and will air on TBS.
The Aggies are expecting better results after their 82-77 loss to Kentucky in the 5 of the Southeastern tournament. Danuel House was the game’s high scorer with 32 points. The Phoenix, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the tough 70-68 loss against Valparaiso in their last outing. Khalil Small had a good shooting night, leading the team with 14 points.
Over the last five games, Charles Cooper and Carrington Love have been on a tear for the Phoenix. During that stretch, Cooper has averaged 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 0.8 steals. Not to be outdone, Love has put up 19.6 points, 1.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.6 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 3.8 three-pointers.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. Texas A&M commits the 34th-fewest miscues in the nation (TO% of 17.3%), while Green Bay’s disruptive defense forces the eighth-most (opponents’ TO% of 21.8%). Also, the Phoenix commit the 10th-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 15.7%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Aggies causes the 12th-most (opponents’ TO% of 21.1%).
The Aggies are attempting to build on their records of 26-7 Straight Up (SU) and 16-11-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 6-1-3 ATS over their last 10 games. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Texas A&M, which ranks 27th at 1.43. The Aggies have really locked down opponents on the defensive end, ranking 23rd in the country with a .406 opponent field-goal percentage.
Across the court, Green Bay has a SU record of 23-12 and an ATS record of 20-10-3. Green Bay has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 7-3.
Texas A&M and Green Bay will be facing off for their first head-to-head game in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – GB, ATS Winner – GB
Notes
“Texas A&M is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games “.
“Texas A&M is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games “.
“The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas A&M’s last 6 games “.
In its last game, Green Bay lost by a margin of two points. Texas A&M is 5-3 in games decided by a margin of three points or less. Green Bay has a 4-3 record in close games.
Ranked 16th, the Texas A&M Aggies have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 96.3 points per 100 possessions. The Green Bay Phoenix rank 96th in offense, scoring 109.3 points in the same number of possessions.
The Green Bay Phoenix average a field goal percentage of 45.0% this season. The Texas A&M Aggies have a solid 6-3 record in games where opponents have a FG% of 45.0% or greater.
The Texas A&M Aggies rank lower for their field goal percentage (131st) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (123rd), but the Green Bay Phoenix have a better FG% ranking (130th) than eFG% ranking (177th).
The Texas A&M Aggies rank 14th in assists per game with an average of 16.9. The Green Bay Phoenix are among the worst in the country with 14.3 assists per game (ranked 111th).
Green Bay, the 50th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.6 per game. Texas A&M does worse, ranked 128th with 3.8.
Texas A&M ranks 42nd in offensive rebounding. Green Bay ranks 133rd in defensive rebounding.
The Green Bay Phoenix average 9.8 steals per game, ranked second in the nation. The Texas A&M Aggies have a 2-3 record when they give up at least 9 steals.
