The Texas A&M Aggies (26-7) play the Kentucky Wildcats (25-8) in the fifth round of the SEC tournament at Bridgestone Arena. The game starts at 1:00 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 13 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Aggies easily got past LSU 71-38 in the 4. DJ Hogg played well, finishing with nine points, six rebounds, and one steal for the Aggies. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are coming off a 93-80 win over Georgia in the 4. Jamal Murray led the game in scoring with 26 points on 8-for-12 shooting.
Murray has been on fire over the last five games for the Wildcats, averaging 25.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 4.4 three-pointers.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency (95.7), while Kentucky is 16th (99.7). Also, the Wildcats commit the fifth-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 16.2%), while the gambling defense of the Aggies causes the sixth-most (opponents’ TO% of 21.2%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Aggies won the first game 71-38. Murray was the game’s leading scorer with 26 points.
The Aggies enter the game with records of 26-7 Straight Up (SU) and 16-11-2 Against The Spread (ATS). In their last 10 games, they are 7-3 ATS. The Aggies, sporting the 22nd-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.45), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Turning to the defensive end, the Aggies have limited opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing 7.0 three-pointers made per game.
On the other side, Kentucky has a SU record of 25-8 and an ATS record of 17-16. Most recently, Kentucky is 7-3 ATS over the last 10 games. The Wildcats rarely make costly errors handling the ball. They have the 47th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the country at 1.31. Switching gears to the Kentucky defense, teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Wildcats, who are the ninth-best team in the nation in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .399.
Texas A&M beat Kentucky in their most recent meeting this season, but Kentucky still leads the head-to-head record over their most recent games, 3-2 SU. The Aggies hold the advantage ATS with a record of 4-1. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Texas A&M and Kentucky each held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last five meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – TexA&M, ATS Winner – TexA&M
Notes
In its last game, Texas A&M won by a margin of 33 points. Kentucky is 12-1 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Texas A&M has a 10-0 record in blowouts.
The Kentucky Wildcats rank eighth for their offensive rating of 117.6. The Texas A&M Aggies have a defensive rating of 95.7 (ranked 10th).
Ranked 25th in the country, Kentucky has an average field goal percentage of 47.8%. Texas A&M is 3-2 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Texas A&M Aggies rank lower for their field goal percentage (127th) than they do for their effective field goal percentage (118th), but the Kentucky Wildcats have a better FG% ranking (25th) than eFG% ranking (41st).
Texas A&M ranks among the best in the nation in assists at 12th (17.1 assists per game). Kentucky is ranked 100th with 14.5 assists per game.
Kentucky, the seventh-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 5.6 per game. Texas A&M ranks lower at 129th with 3.8.
Texas A&M ranks 49th in offensive rebounding. Kentucky ranks 132nd in defensive rebounding.
The Texas A&M Aggies make an average of 7.0 steals per game. When the Kentucky Wildcats allow 6 or more steals, they are a dazzling 6-2.
