The Texas A&M Aggies and the Arkansas Razorbacks get ready to rumble in some week four college football action from Arlington, Texas in the House That Jerry Built. The contest between the two SEC conference schools is set to go off on Saturday, September 23rd at High Noon EST. The big-time afternoon showdown can be seen on ESPN. Heading into this clash, the Aggies are a slight -2.5 favorite and the game’s total sits at 55.
The Texas A&M Aggies will look to build some momentum after improving to 2-1 this season following their 45-21 victory over Louisiana-Lafayette last weekend. Although the Aggies started off slow, they turned it on in the second half and cruised to victory. Now, they will face a hungry Arkansas squad who hopes to rebound from their loss to the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Razorbacks need a good bounce back performance to climb to 2-1 on the season. A 1-2 start with a loss in the SEC could send this team spiraling downward. At times, Arkansas looked pretty good against the Horned Frogs but they couldn’t sustain the effort and fell 24-45. Obviously, the Razorback defense will need to step it up for this contest in AT&T Stadium.
Texas A&M (2-1)
In his first collegiate game under center, quarterback Kellen Mond fared quite well. Mond got the go-ahead when starter Jake Hubenak had to bow out of the game to a shoulder injury. He stepped in and completed 21 of his 34 passes for just over 300 yards with three touchdowns and one pick. Not bad for short notice. Hubenak is still listed as questionable and it is unclear if he will suit up for this battle.
Running back Jacob Kibodi only got four hand-offs in the game against the Ragin’ Cajuns’. Nevertheless he made the most of them, racking up 101 yards and a score. Back field mate Kendall Bussey also pitched in for the Aggies running attack. He had a team-high 13 carries for another 88 yards. Together, they kept the opposing defense of Lafayette on-tilt. Leading rusher Trayveon Williams is probable on the injury chart with an unsteady ankle.
Wide receiver Damion Ratley racked up a team-high 86 yards on 2 catches to help his rookie quarterback. Teammate Jhamon Ausbon, led the squad with four grabs for 69 yards and a touchdown. Also, outstanding wide out Christian Kirk and his counterpart Camron Buckley each hauled in a receiving touchdown. Kellen mond will look to spread around the wealth once again against the Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon.
Defensively, the Aggies were very opportunistic in the win over Lafayette. As a result, they combined for two sacks and three interceptions. Including a pair of picks from cornerback Armani Watts. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, Tyrel Dodson took his interception back 40 yards for a pick-six. Not bad for a unit that is currently ranked 122nd in the nation against the pass.
Arkansas (1-1)
The Arkansas Razorbacks will look to rebound after suffering their first loss of the season. Unfortunately for Hog fans, it was a 28-7 defeat at the hands of TCU. As a result, they fell to 1-1 on the season.
In that game, quarterback Austin Allen under-performed. He completed just 9 of his 23 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown. Allen has to be better as the Razorbacks now rank 122nd in the nation, throwing for only 158 yards per game. If not, the Aggies will load the box like TCU did and make it difficult for Arkansas to move the ball.
Even with the unproductive passing game, the running game has done alright. The Razorbacks are 52nd in the country, running for almost 190 yards per game. Leading the way for the offense is a trio of running backs that have all pitched in nicely. Altogether, the threesome has recorded over three hundred yards and four touchdowns. Tail back chase Hayden leads the team with 122 yards and a score.
Only three Arkansas receivers have caught more than three balls from their quarterback. Fortunately, all three have found their way into the end zone at some point. Wide out Jonathon Nance leads the way with six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, the Razorbacks would like to set up their receivers with some effective play-action against an aggressive Aggie secondary.
In their first two games of the year, the Arkansas defense has held their own. Against one cupcake in Nicholls State and another versus TCU, they are ranked 13th against the pass. In fact, the Hogs’ secondary only has allowed 130 yards per contest.
The Razorbacks’ front seven is the unit that will be tested the most. Fortunately for Arkansas, they also have done well. Since the start of 2017, they rank 62nd in the country giving up just over 160 yards per game.
Prediction
Even with this match-up being classified as a “neutral site,” this location clearly favors the Aggies. Arlington, Texas is not that long of a trip for the die-hard Texas A&M fans. The Arkansas Razorbacks’ offense struggled as a whole last week, while Texas A&M seemed to rebound rather nicely. Let’s face it, it was a much needed performance after their collapse to UCLA in the fourth quarter.
This year’s version of the Razorbacks’ offense is designed to be run heavy. That in itself could create quite a problem because the Aggies defense is ranked six in the country allowing just under 80 yards per game. Basically, this strategy seems to fit right into A&M’s wheel house defensively.
It is still unclear if starter Jake Hubenak will get the go ahead before kick-off. Even still, Kellen Mond proved to me he can handle the pressure and will have plenty of fan support once again.
For those reasons alone, I suggest that bettors take quick advantage of the line at -2.5. It could easily inflate to -3.5 before the week’s end. The under a field goal spread is pretty good for a team that basically will be playing at home. Besides, Texas A&M has the better balanced offense to boot. That is good enough for me. The Aggies win in a so-so game that is lower scoring than expected.
Trends
The Aggies are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games.
The Aggies are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 conference games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Aggies last 5 games following a bye week.
The Over is 4-1 in the Aggies last 5 games overall.
The Razorbacks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
The Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Under is 6-2 in the Razorbacks last 8 games in September.
The Under is 5-2 in the Razorbacks last 7 neutral site games.
