It will be a battle between SEC opponents when the No. 21 Kentucky Wildcats (12-3, 2-1 SEC) welcome the Texas A&M Aggies (11-4, 0-3 SEC) to Rupp Arena. The game gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 9, 2018.
Kentucky is a 7-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 145.5 points.
Texas A&M Aggies at Kentucky Wildcats Free Prediction
The last time the Aggies played, they were beaten by the LSU Tigers, 69-68. LSU’s 0.500 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Texas A&M, who had a rate of 0.438. The Tigers’ mark was below their season average of 0.581, while the Aggies’ was below their season average of 0.521. Tyler Davis led Texas A&M in scoring with 19 points on 8-for-14 shooting.
The Wildcats were beaten by the No. 23 Tennessee Volunteers in their last matchup, 76-65. Tennessee’s free throw rate was their biggest strength over Kentucky. The Volunteers had a rate of 0.327 (above their season average of 0.279), while the Wildcats posted a mark of 0.192 (below their season average of 0.277). Kentucky’s PJ Washington put up 13 points in the contest.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Kentucky should have a considerable advantage. The Wildcats defense ranks 57th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.468), while the Texas A&M offense is ranked 177th in effective field goal percentage (0.516). Moreover, the Aggies are among the NCAA’s best on the offensive backboards, ranking 33rd in offensive rebounding percentage (35.5 percent). The Wildcats, meanwhile, rank 267th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.1 percent).
Texas A&M is 11-4 straight up (SU), but they have difficulty covering the spread (5-7 against the spread (ATS)). Of the Aggies’ 12 games that accepted bets, seven have finished under the total.
Kentucky has an excellent 12-3 SU record, but they are just 6-8-1 ATS. Vegas is highly accurate when predicting totals of Wildcats games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Davis has averaged 13.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for Texas A&M.
After the Wildcats won both games against the Aggies last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Kentucky won 71-63. The Wildcats’ turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over the Aggies. Kentucky had a rate of 8.2, while Texas A&M posted a mark of 10.5.
Texas A&M Aggies at Kentucky Wildcats ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Kentucky, ATS Winner – Texas A&M, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS with 4 unders and 2 overs.
Kentucky is 4-6 ATS at home with 5 overs and 4 unders.
Texas A&M averages 17.5 assists per game, which ranks 21st in the NCAA. Kentucky ranks 144th in assists allowed per game (13.9).
The Wildcats average 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks 17th in the nation. The Aggies rank 129th in blocks allowed per game (4.3).
Texas A&M averages 44.1 rebounds per game, which ranks second in the nation. Kentucky ranks 101st in rebounds allowed per game (33.9).
The Aggies rank 174th in three pointers attempted per game (20.5) while the Wildcats rank 253rd (14.7).
Kentucky averages 6.7 steals per game, which ranks 89th in the NCAA. Texas A&M ranks 106th in steals allowed per game (6.7).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Kentucky is 1-3-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Aggies have been outscored by an average of 3.6 points in their last five games. On the season, Texas A&M has defeated opponents by an average of 11.1 points.
During their last five games, the Wildcats have scored an average of 74.0 points per game (4.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 70.4 points per game (0.8 above their season average).
